• Krupa Madhvani, Silvia Fernandez Garcia, Borja M Fernandez-Felix, Javier Zamora, Tyrone Carpenter, and Khalid S Khan.
• Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry (Madhvani), Queen Mary University of London, London, UK; University Hospitals Dorset (Carpenter), NHS Foundation Trust, UK; Clinical Biostatistics Unit, Hospital Ramón y Cajal (IRYCIS) (Fernandez Garcia, Fernandez-Felix, Zamora); CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (Fernandez-Felix, Zamora, Khan), Madrid, Spain; WHO Collaborating Centre for Global Women's Health (Zamora), Institute of Metabolism and Systems Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK; Department of Preventative Medicine and Public Health (Khan), Faculty of Medicine, University of Granada, Spain krupa.madhvani@nhs.net.
• CMAJ. 2022 Oct 3; 194 (38): E1306E1317E1306-E1317.

BackgroundHysterectomy, the most common gynecological operation, requires surgeons to counsel women about their operative risks. We aimed to develop and validate multivariable logistic regression models to predict major complications of laparoscopic or abdominal hysterectomy for benign conditions.MethodsWe obtained routinely collected health administrative data from the English National Health Service (NHS) from 2011 to 2018. We defined major complications based on core outcomes for postoperative complications including ureteric, gastrointestinal and vascular injury, and wound complications. We specified 11 predictors a priori. We used internal-external cross-validation to evaluate discrimination and calibration across 7 NHS regions in the development cohort. We validated the final models using data from an additional NHS region.ResultsWe found that major complications occurred in 4.4% (3037/68 599) of laparoscopic and 4.9% (6201/125 971) of abdominal hysterectomies. Our models showed consistent discrimination in the development cohort (laparoscopic, C-statistic 0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60 to 0.62; abdominal, C-statistic 0.67, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.70) and similar or better discrimination in the validation cohort (laparoscopic, C-statistic 0.67, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.69; abdominal, C-statistic 0.67, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.69). Adhesions were most predictive of complications in both models (laparoscopic, odds ratio [OR] 1.92, 95% CI 1.73 to 2.13; abdominal, OR 2.46, 95% CI 2.27 to 2.66). Other factors predictive of complications included adenomyosis in the laparoscopic model, and Asian ethnicity and diabetes in the abdominal model. Protective factors included age and diagnoses of menstrual disorders or benign adnexal mass in both models and diagnosis of fibroids in the abdominal model.InterpretationPersonalized risk estimates from these models, which showed moderate discrimination, can inform clinical decision-making for people with benign conditions who may require hysterectomy.© 2022 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.

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