• Bryan Peide Choo, GohGeorge Boon BeeGBB, Sing Yi Chia, Hong Choon Oh, Ngiap Chuan Tan, Jessica Yi Lyn Tan, Tiing Leong Ang, Yong Mong Bee, and Yu Jun Wong.
• Health Services Research, Changi General Hospital, Singapore.
• Ann Acad Med Singap. 2022 Nov 1; 51 (11): 686694686-694.

IntroductionThe cost-effectiveness of screening asymptomatic non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients remains debatable, with current studies assuming lifelong benefits of NAFLD screening while neglecting cardiovascular outcomes. This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of NAFLD screening among type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients, and to establish a price threshold for NAFLD treatment, when it becomes available.MethodA Markov model was constructed comparing 4 screening strategies (versus no screening) to identify NAFLD with advanced fibrosis among T2DM patients: fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE), FIB-4 and VCTE (simultaneous), and FIB-4 and VCTE (sequential). Sensitivity analyses and price threshold analyses were performed to assess parameter uncertainties in the results.ResultsVCTE was the most cost-effective NAFLD screening strategy (USD24,727/quality-adjusted life year [QALY]), followed by FIB-4 (USD36,800/QALY), when compared to no screening. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed a higher degree of certainty for VCTE as a cost-effective strategy compared to FIB-4 (90.7% versus 73.2%). The duration of expected screening benefit is the most influential variable based on incremental cost-effectiveness ratio tornado analysis. The minimum duration of screening benefit for NAFLD screening to be cost-effective was at least 2.6 years. The annual cost of NAFLD treatment should be less than USD751 for NAFLD screening to be cost-effective.ConclusionBoth VCTE and FIB-4 are cost-effective NAFLD screening strategies among T2DM patients in Singapore. However, given the lack of access to VCTE at primacy care and potential budget constraints, FIB-4 can also be considered for NAFLD screening among T2DM patients in Singapore.

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