• Raimund Erbel, Nils Lehmann, Sara Schramm, Börge Schmidt, Anika Hüsing, Bernd Kowall, Dirk M Hermann, Janine Gronewold, Axel Schmermund, Stefan Möhlenkamp, Susanne Moebus, Dietrich Grönemeyer, Rainer Seibel, Andreas Stang, and Karl-Heinz Jöckel.
• Institute for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Essen University Hospital, University of Duisburg-Essen; Department of Neurology, Essen University Hospital, University Duisburg-Essen; Institute for Urban Public Health, Essen University Hospital, University Duisburg-Essen; School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Boston University; Cardioangological Center Bethanien, Frankfurt; Department of Cardiology, Bethanien Hospital Moers, Moers; Grönemeyer Institute, Bochum; Diagnostikum, Mülheim an der Ruhr.
• Dtsch Arztebl Int. 2023 Jan 20; 120 (3): 253225-32.

BackgroundThe aim of the long-term Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study (observation period 20 years) was to establish the extent to which computed tomography (CT) improves the predictability of cardiovascular events relative to determination of risk factors alone.MethodsIn the period 2000-2003, study staff examined 4355 probands (53% of them female) aged 45-75 years with no signs of cardiovascular disease. The Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) score was calculated on the basis of demographic data and cardiovascular risk factors. Cardiac CT was carried out over the same period and coronary artery calcification (CAC) was graded according to the Agatston score.ResultsThe median duration of follow-up was 18.2 years for men and 17.8 years for women. Myocardial infarction or stroke occurred in 458 (11%) of the 4154 participants with complete data. Overall, estimation of risk using a combination of ASCVD score and CAC grade was superior to the ASCVD score alone-even after 10 and 20 years. Classification into established risk categories improved by 12.2% (95% confidence interval: [5.3%; 18.1%]). In the highest ASCVD risk category, we observed occurrence of a cardiovascular event over 20 years for 14% [5.0%; 23.1%] of probands with a CAC score = 0 but for 34.2% [27.5%; 41.4%] of those with a CAC score ≥ 400. In the lowest ASCVD risk category, an event occurred in 2.4% [1.4%; 3.7%] of probands with a CAC score = 0 and in 23.5% [2.3%; 35.8%] of those with a CAC score ≥ 400.ConclusionEven after 20 years, individual risk prediction is improved by addition of CT-based determination of coronary artery calcification to the ASCVD score. Therefore, assessment of ASCVD risk factors should be complemented more widely by cardiac CT in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

32 keywords...

hide…