• Josué López-Baizán, Martín Ruiz Ortiz, Mónica Delgado Ortega, Ana Rodríguez Almodóvar, Fátima Esteban Martínez, Carlos Sánchez Fernández, José Javier Sánchez Fernández, Leticia Mateos de la Haba, Lucas Barreiro Mesa, Cristina Ogayar Luque, Elías Romo Peñas, José López-Aguilera, Francisco Carrasco Ávalos, Juan Carlos Castillo Domínguez, Manuel Anguita Sánchez, Manuel Pan, and Dolores Mesa Rubio.
• Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain.
• Eur. J. Clin. Invest. 2023 May 1; 53 (5): e13941e13941.

BackgroundHeart failure (HF) admission in chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) patients has a prognostic impact. Stratification schemes have been described for predicting this endpoint, but none of them has been externally validated.ObjectivesOur aim was to develop point scores for predicting incident HF admission with data from previous studies, to perform an external validation in an independent prospective cohort and to compare their discriminative ability for this event.MethodsIndependent predictive variables of HF admission in CCS patients without baseline HF were selected from four previous prospective studies (CARE, PEACE, CORONOR and CLARIFY), generating scores based on the relative magnitude of the coefficients of Cox of each variable. Finally, the scores were validated and compared in a monocentric prospective cohort.ResultsThe validation cohort included 1212 patients followed for up to 17 years, with 171 patients suffering at least one HF admission in the follow-up. Discriminative ability for predicting HF admission was statistically significant for all, and paired comparisons among them were all nonsignificant except for CORONOR score was superior to CLARIFY score (C-statistic 0.73, 95%CI 0.69-0.76 vs. 0.69, 95% CI 0.65-0.73; p = 0.03).ConclusionAll tested scores showed significant discriminative ability for predicting incident HF admission in this independent validation study. Their discriminative ability was similar, with significant differences only between the two scores with higher and lower performance.© 2022 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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