• Thaddäus Tönnies, Annika Hoyer, Ralph Brinks, Oliver Kuss, Ramona Hering, and Mandy Schulz.
• German Diabetes Center (DDZ), Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at the Heinrich-Heine University, Düsseldorf, Institute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, Düsseldorf, Germany; Biostatistics and Medical Biometry, Medical School OWL, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany; Chair for Medical Biometry and Epidemiology (MBE), Witten/Herdecke University, Faculty of Health/School of Medicine, Witten, Germany; German Center for Diabetes Research, Partner Düsseldorf, München-Neuherberg, Germany; Centre for Health and Society, Medical Faculty and University Hospital of Düsseldorf, Heinrich-Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany; Central Research Institute for Ambulatory Health Care in Germany, Department of Data Science and Healthcare Analyses, Berlin, Germany.
• Dtsch Arztebl Int. 2023 Mar 17; 120 (11): 173179173-179.

BackgroundThere are no data on recent trends in the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Germany. The aim of this study was to determine the sex-, age-, and region-specific trends in the T2D incidence rate between 2014 and 2019.MethodsBased on nationwide data from statutorily insured persons in Germany, negative binomial regression models were used to analyze age- and sex-specific trends in the T2D incidence rate. Age- and sex-adjusted trends were calculated for 401 administrative districts using a Bayesian spatio-temporal regression model.ResultsDuring the period concerned, approximately 450 000 new cases of T2D were observed each year among some 63 million persons. Taking all age groups together, the incidence rate decreased in both women and men, from 6.9 (95% confidence interval [6.7; 7.0]) and 8.4 [8.2; 8.6] respectively per 1000 persons in 2014 to 6.1 [5.9; 6.3] and 7.7 [7.5; 8.0] per 1000 persons in 2019. This corresponds to an annual reduction of 2.4% [1.5; 3.2] for women and 1.7% [0.8; 2.5] for men. The incidence rate increased in the age group 20-39 years. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate decreased in almost all districts, although regional differences persisted.ConclusionThe T2D incidence rate should be closely monitored to see whether the decreasing trend continues. One must not forget that the prevalence can rise despite decreasing incidence. For this reason, the findings do not necessarily mean a decrease in the disease burden of T2D and the associated demand on healthcare resources.

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