• J. Am. Coll. Surg. · Feb 2023

    Multicenter Study

    Can the American College of Surgeons NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator Accurately Predict Adverse Postoperative Outcomes in Emergency Abdominal Surgery? An Italian Multicenter Analysis.

    • Giovanni Scotton, Antonio La Greca, Chiara Lirusso, Diego Mariani, Mauro Zago, Massimo Chiarugi, Dario Tartaglia, Nicolò de Manzini, Alan Biloslavo, and Emergency Surgery Collaborative.
    • From the Department of General Surgery, ASUITS, Cattinara Hospital, Trieste, Italy (Scotton, de Manzini, Biloslavo).
    • J. Am. Coll. Surg. 2023 Feb 1; 236 (2): 387398387-398.

    BackgroundThe American College of Surgeons NSQIP surgical risk calculator provides an estimation of 30-day postoperative adverse outcomes. It is useful in the identification of high-risk patients needing clinical optimization and supports the informed consent process. The purpose of this study is to validate its predictive value in the Italian emergency setting.Study DesignSix Italian institutions were included. Inclusion diagnoses were acute cholecystitis, appendicitis, gastrointestinal perforation or obstruction. Areas under the receiving operating characteristic curves, Brier score, Hosmer-Lemeshow index, and observed-to-expected event ratio were measured to assess both discrimination and calibration. Effect of the Surgeon Adjustment Score on calibration was then tested. A patient's personal risk ratio was obtained, and a cutoff was chosen to predict mortality with a high negative predicted value.ResultsA total of 2,749 emergency procedures were considered for the analysis. The areas under the receiving operating characteristic curve were 0.932 for death (0.921 to 0.941, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.041) and 0.918 for discharge to nursing or rehabilitation facility (0.907 to 0.929, p < 0.0001; 0.070). Discrimination was also strong (area under the receiving operating characteristic curve >0.8) for renal failure, cardiac complication, pneumonia, venous thromboembolism, serious complication, and any complication. Brier score was informative (<0.25) for all the presented variables. The observed-to-expected event ratios were 1.0 for death and 0.8 for discharge to facility. For almost all other variables, there was a general risk underestimation, but the use of the Surgeon Adjustment Score permitted a better calibration of the model. A risk ratio >3.00 predicted the onset of death with sensitivity = 86%, specificity = 77%, and negative predicted value = 99%.ConclusionsThe American College of Surgeons NSQIP surgical risk calculator has proved to be a reliable predictor of adverse postoperative outcomes also in Italian emergency settings, with particular regard to mortality. We therefore recommend the use of the surgical risk calculator in the multidisciplinary care of patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery.Copyright © 2022 by the American College of Surgeons. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

      Pubmed     Copy Citation     Plaintext  

      Add institutional full text...

    Notes

     
    Knowledge, pearl, summary or comment to share?
    300 characters remaining
    help        
    You can also include formatting, links, images and footnotes in your notes
    • Simple formatting can be added to notes, such as *italics*, _underline_ or **bold**.
    • Superscript can be denoted by <sup>text</sup> and subscript <sub>text</sub>.
    • Numbered or bulleted lists can be created using either numbered lines 1. 2. 3., hyphens - or asterisks *.
    • Links can be included with: [my link to pubmed](http://pubmed.com)
    • Images can be included with: ![alt text](https://bestmedicaljournal.com/study_graph.jpg "Image Title Text")
    • For footnotes use [^1](This is a footnote.) inline.
    • Or use an inline reference [^1] to refer to a longer footnote elseweher in the document [^1]: This is a long footnote..

    hide…

What will the 'Medical Journal of You' look like?

Start your free 21 day trial now.

We guarantee your privacy. Your email address will not be shared.