• G E O'Keefe, J L Hunt, and G F Purdue.
• Department of Surgery, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center Dallas 75235, USA.
• J. Am. Coll. Surg. 2001 Feb 1;192(2):153-60.

BackgroundThe primary objective of this study was to determine an objective method for estimating the risk of mortality after burn trauma, and secondarily, to evaluate the relationship between gender and mortality, in the setting of a quantifiable inflammatory stimulus. Previously reported estimates of mortality risk after burn trauma may no longer be applicable, given the overall reduction in case-fatality rates after burn trauma. We expect that future advances in burn trauma research will require careful and ongoing quantification of mortality risk factors to measure the importance of newly identified factors and to determine the impact of new therapies. Conflicting clinical reports regarding the impact of gender on survival after sepsis and critical illness may in part, be from different study designs, patient samples, or failure to adequately control for additional factors contributing to the development ofsepsis and mortality.Study DesignData from the prospectively maintained burn registry for patients admitted to the Parkland Memorial Hospital burn unit between January 1, 1989 and December 31, 1998 were analyzed. Logistic regression was used to generate estimates of the probability of death in half of the study sample, and this model was validated on the second half of the sample. Risk factors evaluated for their relationship with mortality were: age, inhalation injury, burn size, body mass (weight), preexisting medical conditions, nonburn injuries, and gender.ResultsOf 4,927 patients, 5.3% died. The best model for estimating mortality included the percent of total body surface area burned; the percent of full-thickness burn size; the presence of an inhalation injury; age categories of: < 30 years, 30 to 59 years, > or = 60 years; and gender. The risk of death was approximately two-fold higher in women aged 30 to 59 years compared with men of the same age.ConclusionsWe have provided a detailed method for estimating the risk of mortality after burn trauma, based on a large, contemporary cohort of patients. These estimates were validated on a second sample and proved to predict mortality accurately. We have identified an increased mortality risk in women of 30 to 59 years of age.

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