• Nicholas Kofi Adjei, Daniela K Schlüter, Viviane S Straatmann, Gabriella Melis, Kate M Fleming, Ruth McGovern, Louise M Howard, Eileen Kaner, Ingrid Wolfe, David C Taylor-Robinson, and ORACLE consortium.
• Department of Public Health, Policy and Systems, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK. Electronic address: n.adjei@liverpool.ac.uk.
• Lancet. 2022 Nov 1; 400 Suppl 1: S16S16.

BackgroundAdolescent health is poor in the UK, with higher prevalence of adverse outcomes in adolescents exposed to family adversities that cluster with poverty from early life. However, little evidence exists to quantify the contribution of these exposures to poor child health in the UK to inform policy. The aim of this study was to estimate the proportion of child physical, mental, cognitive, and behavioural outcomes that could be prevented if exposure to poverty and family adversity during childhood were eliminated.MethodsWe used nationally representative birth cohort data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study to calculate population attributable fractions. Exposure trajectories were characterised using previously developed group-based multi-trajectory models of childhood adversities up to age 14 years, including low poverty and family adversity, persistent poverty, persistent parental alcohol use, persistent domestic violence and abuse, and persistent poverty and poor parental mental health trajectory; and we assessed the effect of these trajectories on adolescent outcomes using regression models. These models were used to calculate population attributable fractions by contrasting a hypothetical scenario in which all children were in a low poverty and family adversity trajectory with the real-world scenario.FindingsThe identified exposure trajectories contributed substantially to the burden of childhood developmental problems. Compared with the low poverty and family adversity trajectory, the overall percentage of socioemotional behavioural problems at age 14 years attributable to persistent poverty and family adversity trajectories was 54% (95% CI 45-60). A percentage of 36·1% (95% CI 21·8-46·2) was reported for drug experimentation, 32·6% (18·8-40·7) for cognitive disability, and 27·4% (12·9-34·9) for obesity (appendix).InterpretationPoverty and family adversity contribute to a substantial burden of adverse child health and developmental outcomes in the UK population.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Policy Research Programme, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration South London at King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, and the UK Medical Research Council.Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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