• Brooke E Wilson, Christopher M Booth, Richard Sullivan, Ajay Aggarwal, Manju Sengar, Susannah Jacob, Freddie Bray, Michael B Barton, and Sallie-Anne Pearson.
• Division of Cancer Care and Epidemiology, Queen's Cancer Research Institute and Department of Oncology, Queens University, Kingston, ON, Canada; Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes, Research and Evaluation, South-West Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Liverpool, NSW, Australia; School of Population Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia. Electronic address: brooke.wilson@kingstonhsc.ca.
• Lancet Oncol. 2023 Jun 1; 24 (6): 682690682-690.

BackgroundResource-stratified guidelines (RSGs) can inform systemic treatment decisions in the face of limited resources. The objective of this study was to develop a customisable modelling tool to predict the demand, cost, and drug procurement needs of delivering National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) RSG-based systemic treatment for colon cancer.MethodsWe developed decision trees for first-course systemic therapy for colon cancer based on the NCCN RSGs. Decision trees were merged with data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results programme, the International Agency for Research on Cancer's GLOBOCAN 2020 national estimates for colon cancer incidence, country-level income data, and data on drug costs from Redbook (USA), the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (Australia), and the Management Sciences for Health 2015 International Medical Products price guide to estimate global treatment needs and costs, and forecast drug procurement. Simulations and sensitivity analyses were used to explore the effect of scaling up services globally and the effect of alternative stage distributions on treatment demand and cost. We generated a customisable model, in which estimates can be tailored to local incidence, epidemiological, and costing data.FindingsFirst-course systemic therapy is indicated in 608 314 (53·6%) of 1 135 864 colon cancer diagnoses in 2020. Indications for first-course systemic therapy are projected to rise to 926 653 in 2040; the indications in 2020 might be as high as 826 123 (72·7%), depending on stage distribution assumptions. Adhering to NCCN RSGs, patients with colon cancer in low-income and middle income countries (LMICs) would constitute 329 098 (54·1%) of 608 314 global systemic therapy demands, but only 10% of global expenditure on systemic therapies. The total cost of NCCN RSG-based first-course systemic therapy for colon cancer in 2020 would be between about US$4·2 and about $4·6 billion, depending on stage distribution. If all patients with colon cancer in 2020 were treated according to maximal resources, global expenditure on systemic therapy for colon cancer would rise to around $8·3 billion.InterpretationWe have developed a customisable model that can be applied at global, national, and subnational levels to estimate systemic treatment needs, forecast drug procurement, and calculate expected drug costs on the basis of local data. This tool can be used to plan resource allocation for colon cancer globally.FundingNone.Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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