• Jin-On Jung, Juan I Pisula, Kasia Bozek, Felix Popp, Hans F Fuchs, Wolfgang Schröder, Christiane J Bruns, and Thomas Schmidt.
• Department of General, Visceral, Tumour, and Transplantation Surgery, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
• Br J Surg. 2023 Sep 6; 110 (10): 136113661361-1366.

BackgroundOesophagectomy is an operation with a high risk of postoperative complications. The aim of this single-centre retrospective study was to apply machine-learning methods to predict complications (Clavien-Dindo grade IIIa or higher) and specific adverse events.MethodsPatients with resectable adenocarcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus and gastro-oesophageal junction who underwent Ivor Lewis oesophagectomy between 2016 and 2021 were included. The tested algorithms were logistic regression after recursive feature elimination, random forest, k-nearest neighbour, support vector machine, and neural network. The algorithms were also compared with a current risk score (the Cologne risk score).Results457 patients had Clavien-Dindo grade IIIa or higher complications (52.9 per cent) versus 407 patients with Clavien-Dindo grade 0, I, or II complications (47.1 per cent). After 3-fold imputation and 3-fold cross-validation, the overall accuracies were: logistic regression after recursive feature elimination, 0.528; random forest, 0.535; k-nearest neighbour, 0.491; support vector machine, 0.511; neural network, 0.688; and Cologne risk score, 0.510. For medical complications, the results were: logistic regression after recursive feature elimination, 0.688; random forest, 0.664; k-nearest neighbour, 0.673; support vector machine, 0.681; neural network, 0.692; and Cologne risk score, 0.650. For surgical complications, the results were: logistic regression after recursive feature elimination, 0.621; random forest, 0.617; k-nearest neighbour, 0.620; support vector machine, 0.634; neural network, 0.667; and Cologne risk score, 0.624. The calculated area under the curve of the neural network was 0.672 for Clavien-Dindo grade IIIa or higher, 0.695 for medical complications, and 0.653 for surgical complications.ConclusionThe neural network scored the highest accuracies compared with all of the other models for the prediction of postoperative complications after oesophagectomy.© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of BJS Society Ltd. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

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