• Eur Spine J · Nov 2023

    A nomogram prediction model for refracture in elderly patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures after percutaneous vertebroplasty.

    • Gang Ju and Xiaoqing Liu.
    • Department of Orthopedics, The Affiliated Taizhou People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Taizhou School of Clinical Medicine, Nanjing Medical University, No. 366 Taihu Road, Taizhou City, 225300, Jiangsu Province, China. dr_jugang@sina.com.
    • Eur Spine J. 2023 Nov 1; 32 (11): 391939263919-3926.

    BackgroundThis study aims to evaluate the risk factors of refracture in elderly patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (OVCF) patients after percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) and construct a predictive nomogram model.MethodsElderly symptomatic OVCF patients undergoing PVP were enrolled and grouped based on the development of refracture within 1 year postoperatively. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors. Subsequently, a nomogram prediction model was constructed and evaluated based on these risk factors.ResultsA total of 264 elderly OVCF patients were enrolled in the final cohort. Among these, 48 (18.2%) patients had suffered refracture within 1 year after surgery. Older age, lower mean spinal BMD, multiple vertebral fracture, lower albumin/fibrinogen ratio (AFR), no postoperative regular anti-osteoporosis, and exercise were six independent risk factors identified for postoperative refracture. The AUC of the constructed nomogram model based on these six factors was 0.812 with a specificity and sensitivity of 0.787 and 0.750, respectively.ConclusionsIn summary, the nomogram model based on the six risk factors had clinical efficacy for refracture prediction.© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.

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