• Emergencias · Oct 2023

    Nonadverse COVID-19 evolution predictors: the CoNAE scale.

    • Esther Pulido-Herrero, Nere Larrea, Susana García-Gutiérrez, María S Gallardo, Julio J Gamazo-Del-Río, María Gascón, María-José Legarreta, Ane Villanueva, José M Quintana, and Grupo de Investigación COVID-Health Basque Country.
    • Servicio Vasco de Salud de Osakidetza, Unidad de Urgencias, Hospital Universitario Galdakao-Usansolo, Barakaldo, España. Grupo de Urgencias, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Biocruces Bizkaia, Barakaldo, España. Departamento de Medicina, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Deusto, España. Red de Investigación de Servicios Sanitarios en Enfermedades Crónicas (REDISSEC), Bizkaia, España. Red de Investigación en Cronicidad, Atención Primaria y Promoción de la Salud (RICAPPS).
    • Emergencias. 2023 Oct 1; 35 (5): 335344335-344.

    ObjectivesTools to identify patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 are as yet unavailable. Our aims were to identify factors associated with nonadverse outcomes and develop a scale to predict nonadverse evolution in patients with COVID-19 (the CoNAE scale) in hospital emergency departments.Material And MethodsRetrospective cohort study of patients who came to one of our area's national health service hospitals for treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection from July 1, 2020, to July 31, 2021. From case records we collected sociodemographic information, underlying comorbidity and ongoing treatments, other relevant medical history details, and vital constants on arrival for triage. Multilevel multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify predictors.ResultsThe model showed that patients who had nonadverse outcomes were younger, female, and vaccinated against COVID-19 (2 doses at the time of the study). They arrived with normal vital signs (heart rate, diastolic and systolic pressures, temperature, and oxygen saturation) and had none of the following concomitant diseases or factors: heart failure other heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, liver disease, dementia, history of malignant tumors, and they were not being treated with oral or other systemic corticosteroids or immunosuppressant therapy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model was 0.840 (95% CI, 0.834-0.847).ConclusionWe developed the CoNAE scale to predict nonadverse outcomes. This scale may be useful in triage for evaluating patients with COVID-19. It may also help predict safe discharge or plan the level of care that patients require not only in a hospital emergency department but also in urgent primary care settings or out-of-hospital emergency care.

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