• Satoshi Maki, Takeo Furuya, Takaki Inoue, Atsushi Yunde, Masataka Miura, Yuki Shiratani, Yuki Nagashima, Juntaro Maruyama, Yasuhiro Shiga, Kazuhide Inage, Yawara Eguchi, Sumihisa Orita, and Seiji Ohtori.
• Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan.
• J. Neurotrauma. 2024 May 1; 41 (9-10): 108911001089-1100.

AbstractAccurately predicting functional outcomes in patients with spinal cord injury (SCI) helps clinicians set realistic functional recovery goals and improve the home environment after discharge. The present study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models to predict functional outcomes in patients with SCI and deploy the models within a web application. The study included data from the Japan Association of Rehabilitation Database from January 1, 1991, to December 31, 2015. Patients with SCI who were admitted to an SCI center or transferred to a participating post-acute rehabilitation hospital after receiving acute treatment were enrolled in this database. The primary outcome was functional ambulation at discharge from the rehabilitation hospital. The secondary outcome was the total motor Functional Independence Measure (FIM) score at discharge. We used binary classification models to predict whether functional ambulation was achieved, as well as regression models to predict total motor FIM scores at discharge. In the training dataset (70% random sample) using demographic characteristics and neurological and functional status as predictors, we built prediction performance matrices of multiple ML models and selected the best one for each outcome. We validated each model's predictive performance in the test dataset (the remaining 30%). Among the 4181 patients, 3827 were included in the prediction model for the total motor FIM score. The mean (standard deviation [SD]) age was 50.4 (18.7) years, and 3211 (83.9%) patients were male. There were 3122 patients included in the prediction model for functional ambulation. The CatBoost Classifier and regressor models showed the best performances in the training dataset. On the test dataset, the CatBoost Classifier had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.8572 and an accuracy of 0.7769 for predicting functional ambulation. Likewise, the CatBoost Regressor performed well, with an R2 of 0.7859, a mean absolute error of 9.2957, and a root mean square error of 13.4846 for predicting the total motor FIM score. The final models were deployed in a web application to provide functional predictions. The application can be found at http://3.138.174.54:8501. In conclusion, our prediction models developed using ML successfully predicted functional outcomes in patients with SCI and were deployed in an open-access web application.

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