• Samuel Rupp, Elena Ahrens, Maira I Rudolph, Omid Azimaraghi, Maximilian S Schaefer, Philipp Fassbender, Carina P Himes, Preeti Anand, Parsa Mirhaji, Richard Smith, Jeffrey Freda, Matthias Eikermann, and Karuna Wongtangman.
• Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA.
• Can J Anaesth. 2023 Dec 1; 70 (12): 193919491939-1949.

PurposeWe sought to develop and validate an Anticipated Surveillance Requirement Prediction Instrument (ASRI) for prediction of prolonged postanesthesia care unit length of stay (PACU-LOS, more than four hours) after ambulatory surgery.MethodsWe analyzed hospital registry data from patients who received anesthesia care in ambulatory surgery centres (ASCs) of university-affiliated hospital networks in New York, USA (development and internal validation cohort [n = 183,711]) and Massachusetts, USA (validation cohort [n = 148,105]). We used stepwise backwards elimination to create ASRI.ResultsThe model showed discriminatory ability in the development, internal, and external validation cohorts with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.83), 0.82 (95% CI, 0.81 to 0.83), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.80), respectively. In cases started in the afternoon, ASRI scores ≥ 43 had a total predicted risk for PACU stay past 8 p.m. of 32% (95% CI, 31.1 to 33.3) vs 8% (95% CI, 7.9 to 8.5) compared with low score values (P-for-interaction < 0.001), which translated to a higher direct PACU cost of care of USD 207 (95% CI, 194 to 2,019; model estimate, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.64 to 1.73; P < 0.001) The effects of using the ASRI score on PACU use efficiency were greater in a free-standing ASC with no limitations on PACU bed availability.ConclusionWe developed and validated a preoperative prediction tool for prolonged PACU-LOS after ambulatory surgery that can be used to guide scheduling in ambulatory surgery to optimize PACU use during normal work hours, particularly in settings without limitation of PACU bed availability.© 2023. Canadian Anesthesiologists' Society.

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