• de WitKerstinKDepartment of Emergency Medicine (de Wit), Queen's University, Kingston, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Medicine (de Wit, Mercuri, Buchanan, Worster), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Department of Health Research Me, Mathew Mercuri, Natasha Clayton, Éric Mercier, Judy Morris, Rebecca Jeanmonod, Debra Eagles, Catherine Varner, David Barbic, Ian M Buchanan, Mariyam Ali, Yoan K Kagoma, Ashkan Shoamanesh, Paul Engels, Sunjay Sharma, Andrew Worster, Shelley McLeod, Marcel Émond, Ian Stiell, Alexandra Papaioannou, Sameer Parpia, and Network of Canadian Emergency Researchers.
• Department of Emergency Medicine (de Wit), Queen's University, Kingston, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine, Department of Medicine (de Wit, Mercuri, Buchanan, Worster), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact (de Wit, Parpia), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Mercuri), University of Toronto, Ont.; Emergency Department (Clayton), Hamilton Health Sciences; Department of Medicine (Clayton, Ali, Shoamanesh, Papaioannou, Parpia), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; Centre de recherche du Centre hospitalier universitaire de Québec (Mercier) - Université Laval, Laval, Que.; VITAM - Centre de recherche en santé durable (Mercier, Émond), Québec, Que.; Department of Family Medicine and Emergency Medicine (Morris, Émond), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; St. Luke's University Health Network (Jeanmonod), Bethlehem, Penn.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Eagles, Stiell), Ottawa Hospital Research Institute; School of Epidemiology and Public Health (Eagles, Stiell), University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont.; Schwartz/Reisman Emergency Medicine Institute (Eagles), Sinai Health, Toronto, Ont.; Clinical Epidemiology Program (Varner, McLeod), Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ont.; Division of Emergency Medicine (Varner, McLeod), Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Emergency Medicine (Barbic), University of British Columbia; Centre for Health Evaluation Outcome Sciences (Barbic), St. Paul's Hospital, Vancouver, BC; Department of Medical Imaging (Kagoma) and of Surgery (Engels, Sharma), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont. kerstin.dewit@queensu.ca.
• CMAJ. 2023 Dec 3; 195 (47): E1614E1621E1614-E1621.

BackgroundGround-level falls are common among older adults and are the most frequent cause of traumatic intracranial bleeding. The aim of this study was to derive a clinical decision rule that safely excludes clinically important intracranial bleeding in older adults who present to the emergency department after a fall, without the need for a computed tomography (CT) scan of the head.MethodsThis prospective cohort study in 11 emergency departments in Canada and the United States enrolled patients aged 65 years or older who presented after falling from standing on level ground, off a chair or toilet seat, or out of bed. We collected data on 17 potential predictor variables. The primary outcome was the diagnosis of clinically important intracranial bleeding within 42 days of the index emergency department visit. An independent adjudication committee, blinded to baseline data, determined the primary outcome. We derived a clinical decision rule using logistic regression.ResultsThe cohort included 4308 participants, with a median age of 83 years; 2770 (64%) were female, 1119 (26%) took anticoagulant medication and 1567 (36%) took antiplatelet medication. Of the participants, 139 (3.2%) received a diagnosis of clinically important intracranial bleeding. We developed a decision rule indicating that no head CT is required if there is no history of head injury on falling; no amnesia of the fall; no new abnormality on neurologic examination; and the Clinical Frailty Scale score is less than 5. Rule sensitivity was 98.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 94.9%-99.6%), specificity was 20.3% (95% CI 19.1%-21.5%) and negative predictive value was 99.8% (95% CI 99.2%-99.9%).InterpretationWe derived a Falls Decision Rule, which requires external validation, followed by clinical impact assessment. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials. gov, no. NCT03745755.© 2023 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.

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