• Jinyu Zhang, Lei Zhong, Jie Min, Yunhai Wei, and Lan Ding.
• Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Huzhou Central Hospital, The Fifth School of Clinical Medicine of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Huzhou, 313000, China.
• BMC Anesthesiol. 2023 Dec 19; 23 (1): 416416.

BackgroundPatients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit (SICU) often suffer from multi-organ dysfunction and have a high mortality rate. Therefore, finding a simple but effective clinical indicator to predict the prognosis of patients is essential to improve their survival. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between blood urea nitrogen to serum albumin ratio (B/A) and short-term mortality among patients from the SICU.MethodsAll eligible adult patients admitted to the SICU from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database were recruited for this study. Participants were divided into a death group (n = 638) and a survival group (n = 2,048) based on the 90-day prognosis, and then grouped by B/A quartiles. We used restricted cubic splines (RCS) to visually analyze the correlation of B/A with 30- and 90-day risk of death. Cumulative survival rates were estimated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves according to B/A quartiles and evaluated using the log-rank test. Cox proportional risk models were developed and sensitivity analyses were performed to explore whether B/A was independently associated with short-term outcomes in SICU patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were analyzed to ascertain the value of B/A for prognosticating 90-day outcome.ResultsA total of 2686 participants were included in the final study, and their 30-day and 90-day all-cause mortality rates were 17.61% and 23.75%, respectively. The differences in 30-day and 90-day mortality rates were statistically significant among the four groups of patients (all p < 0.001). RCS curves showed that B/A was linearly associated with the risk of 30-day and 90-day all-cause mortality in SICU patients (χ2 = 0.960, p = 0.811; χ2 = 1.940, p = 0.584). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the 90-day cumulative survival rate gradually decreased as B/A increased, with patients in the highest quartile of B/A having the lowest survival rate (p < 0.001). Cox regression indicated that elevated B/A (> 9.69) was an independent risk factor for 30-day and 90-day all-cause mortality in SICU patients. The analysis of ROC curves demonstrated that B/A exhibited a significant predictive ability for 90-day mortality, with an optimal threshold of 6.587, a sensitivity of 56.9%, and a specificity of 64.8%.ConclusionsElevated B/A (> 9.69) on admission was an independent risk factor for short-term mortality in SICU patients, and clinicians should pay more attention to this group of patients and intervene clinically at an early stage to reduce mortality.© 2023. The Author(s).

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