• Daniel J Tan, Caroline J Lodge, E Haydn Walters, Dinh S Bui, Jonathan Pham, Adrian J Lowe, Gayan Bowatte, Don Vicendese, Bircan Erbas, David P Johns, Alan L James, Peter Frith, Garun S Hamilton, Paul S Thomas, Richard Wood-Baker, MeiLan K Han, George R Washko, Michael J Abramson, Jennifer L Perret, and Shyamali C Dharmage.
• Allergy and Lung Health Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
• Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med. 2024 Jun 15; 209 (12): 143114401431-1440.

AbstractRationale: The term "pre-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease" ("pre-COPD") refers to individuals at high risk of developing COPD who do not meet conventional spirometric criteria for airflow obstruction. New approaches to identifying these individuals are needed, particularly in younger populations. Objectives: To determine whether lung function thresholds and respiratory symptoms can be used to identify individuals at risk of developing COPD. Methods: The Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study comprises a population-based cohort first studied in 1968 (at age 7 yr). Respiratory symptoms, pre- and post-bronchodilator (BD) spirometry, diffusing capacity, and static lung volumes were measured in a subgroup at age 45, and the incidence of COPD was assessed at age 53. For each lung function measure, z-scores were calculated using Global Lung Function Initiative references. The optimal threshold for best discrimination of COPD incidence was determined by the unweighted Youden index. Measurements and Main Results: Among 801 participants who did not have COPD at age 45, the optimal threshold for COPD incidence by age 53 was pre-BD FEV1/FVC z-score less than -1.264, corresponding to the lowest 10th percentile. Those below this threshold had a 36-fold increased risk of developing COPD over an 8-year follow-up period (risk ratio, 35.8; 95% confidence interval, 8.88 to 144), corresponding to a risk difference of 16.4% (95% confidence interval, 3.7 to 67.4). The sensitivity was 88%, and the specificity was 87%. Positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.79 and 0.14, respectively. Respiratory symptoms, post-BD spirometry, diffusing capacity, and static lung volumes did not improve on the classification achieved by pre-BD FEV1/FVC alone. Conclusions: This is the first study, to our knowledge, to evaluate the discriminatory accuracy of spirometry, diffusing capacity, and static lung volume thresholds for COPD incidence in middle-aged adults. Our findings support the inclusion of pre-BD spirometry in the physiological definition of pre-COPD and indicate that pre-BD FEV1/FVC at the 10th percentile accurately identifies individuals at high risk of developing COPD in community-based settings.

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