• Dominique Vervoort, Grishma Hirode, Thomas F Lindsay, Derrick Y Tam, Varun Kapila, and Charles de Mestral.
• Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation (Vervoort, Tam, de Mestral), Division of Cardiac Surgery (Vervoort, Tam) and Institute of Medical Science (Hirode), University of Toronto; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease (Hirode), Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network; Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery (Lindsay), Peter Munk Cardiac Centre, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Division of Vascular Surgery (Kapila), William Osler Health System, Brampton, Ont.; Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery (de Mestral), St. Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
• CMAJ. 2024 Feb 4; 196 (4): E112E120E112-E120.

BackgroundScreening programs for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) are not available in Canada. We sought to determine the effectiveness and costutility of AAA screening in Ontario.MethodsWe compared one-time ultrasonography-based AAA screening for people aged 65 years to no screening using a fully probabilistic Markov model with a lifetime horizon. We estimated life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), AAA-related deaths, number needed to screen to prevent 1 AAA-related death and costs (in Canadian dollars) from the perspective of the Ontario Ministry of Health. We retrieved model inputs from literature, Statistics Canada, and the Ontario Case Costing Initiative.ResultsScreening reduced AAA-related deaths by 84.9% among males and 81.0% among females. Compared with no screening, screening resulted in 0.04 (18.96 v. 18.92) additional life-years and 0.04 (14.95 v. 14.91) additional QALYs at an incremental cost of $80 per person among males. Among females, screening resulted in 0.02 (21.25 v. 21.23) additional life-years and 0.01 (16.20 v. 16.19) additional QALYs at an incremental cost of $11 per person. At a willingness-to-pay of $50 000 per year, screening was cost-effective in 84% (males) and 90% (females) of model iterations. Screening was increasingly cost-effective with higher AAA prevalence.InterpretationScreening for AAA among people aged 65 years in Ontario was associated with fewer AAA-related deaths and favourable cost-effectiveness. To maximize QALY gains per dollar spent and AAA-related deaths prevented, AAA screening programs should be designed to ensure that populations with high prevalence of AAA participate.© 2024 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.

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