• Bernadette O'Hare, Innocent Makuta, Naor Bar-Zeev, Levison Chiwaula, and Alex Cobham.
• College of Medicine, St Andrews University, Blantyre 3, Malawi.
• J R Soc Med. 2014 Apr 1; 107 (4): 148156148-56.

ObjectivesThis paper sets out to estimate the cost of illicit financial flows (IFF) in terms of the amount of time it could take to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG) in 34 African countries.DesignWe have calculated the percentage increase in gross domestic product (GDP) if IFFs were curtailed using IFF/GDP ratios. We applied the income (GDP) elasticity of child mortality to the increase in GDP to estimate the reduction in time to reach the fourth MDG in 34 African countries.Participantschildren aged under five years.Settings34 countries in SSA.Main Outcome MeasuresReduction in time to reach the first indicator of the fourth MDG, under-five mortality rate in the absence of IFF.ResultsWe found that in the 34 SSA countries, six countries will achieve their fourth MDG target at the current rates of decline. In the absence of IFF, 16 countries would reach their fourth MDG target by 2015 and there would be large reductions for all other countries.ConclusionsThis drain on development is facilitated by financial secrecy in other jurisdictions. Rich and poor countries alike must stem the haemorrhage of IFF by taking decisive steps towards improving financial transparency.

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