• Laura Melero Guijarro, Francisco Martín-Rodríguez, Álvarez ManzanaresJesúsJServicio de Urgencias, Hospital Universitario Rio Hortega de Valladolid, Gerencia Regional de Salud de Castilla y León (SACYL), España., Carlos Del Pozo Vegas, Ancor Sanz García, Miguel Ángel Castro Villamor, and Raúl López-Izquierdo.
• Servicio de Urgencias, Hospital Universitario Rio Hortega de Valladolid, Gerencia Regional de Salud de Castilla y León (SACYL), España.
• Emergencias. 2024 Apr 1; 36 (2): 889688-96.

ObjectivesTo develop and validate a risk model for 1-year mortality based on variables available from early prehospital emergency attendance of patients with infection.Material And MethodsProspective, observational, noninterventional multicenter study in adults with suspected infection transferred to 4 Spanish hospitals by advanced life-support ambulances from June 1, 2020, through June 30, 2022. We collected demographic, physiological, clinical, and analytical data. Cox regression analysis was used to develop and validate a risk model for 1-year mortality.ResultsFour hundred ten patients were enrolled (development cohort, 287; validation cohort, 123). Cumulative mortality was 49% overall. Sepsis (infection plus a Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment score of 2 or higher) was diagnosed in 29.2% of survivors vs 56.7% of nonsurvivors. The risk model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 for 1-year mortality. The following predictors were included in the model: age; institutionalization; age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index; PaCO2; potassium, lactate, urea nitrogen, and creatinine levels; fraction of inspired oxygen; and diagnosed sepsis.ConclusionThe model showed excellent ability to predict 1-year mortality based on epidemiological, analytical, and clinical variables, identifying patients at high risk of death soon after their first contact with the health care system.

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