• Mingyi Chen, Xiaoxin Xu, Fang Wang, and Xiaohong Xu.
• Department of Neurology and Stroke Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China; Clinical Neuroscience Institute, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
• World Neurosurg. 2024 Aug 1; 188: e513e530e513-e530.

BackgroundAstrocytoma is a type of adult-type diffuse gliomas that includes diffuse astrocytoma (DA) and anaplastic astrocytoma (AA). However, comprehensive investigations into the risk assessment and prognosis of DA and AA using population-based studies remain noticeably scarce.MethodsIn this study, we developed 2 predictive nomograms to evaluate the susceptibility and prognosis associated with DA and AA. The study cohort comprised 3837 individuals diagnosed with DA or AA between 2010 and 2019 selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Independent predictors were identified and used to construct the nomograms for overall death and cancer-specific death rates. The performance of the models was assessed using C-index, calibration curves, and receiver operating characteristic curve, and the clinical applicability was evaluated using decision curve analysis.ResultsThe receiver operating characteristic curves in this study show excellent clinical applicability and predictive power. Notably, the area under the curves of the training and verification queues was higher than 0.80, thereby cementing the models' precision. Additionally, the calibration plots demonstrate that the anticipated mortality rates strikingly match the measured values. This alignment of figures is sustained in the validation cohort. Furthermore, the decision curve analysis corroborates the models' translational potential, reinforcing their relevance within real-world clinical settings.ConclusionsThe presented nomograms have not only exhibited good predictive performance but also showcased pragmatic clinical utility in prognosticating patient outcomes. Significantly, this will undoubtedly serve as a valuable asset for oncologists, facilitating informed treatment decisions and meticulous follow-up planning.Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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