• Chase J Wehrle, Mir Shanaz Hossain, Breanna Perlmutter, Jenny H Chang, Daniel Joyce, Robert Simon, Toms Augustin, and R Matthew Walsh.
• Department of General Surgery, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, OH.
• Ann. Surg. 2024 Oct 1; 280 (4): 683692683-692.

ObjectiveTo quantify the rate of progression in surveilled cysts and assess what factors should indicate delayed resection.BackgroundSide-branch intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (SB-IPMNs) are increasingly discovered, making it challenging to identify which patients require resection, thus avoiding inappropriate treatment. Most incidental lesions are surveyed, yet the consequences of that decision remain uncertain.MethodsA prospectively maintained database of pancreatic cystic neoplasms was queried for patients with SB-IPMN. Patients with ≥2 imaging studies >6 months apart were included. Clinically relevant progression (CR-progression) was defined by symptoms, worrisome/high-risk stigmata, or invasive cancer (IC). Growth ≥5 mm in 2 years is considered CR-progression; size ≥3 cm alone is not.ResultsBetween 1997 and 2023, 1337 patients were diagnosed with SB-IPMN. Thirty-seven (2.7%) underwent up-front surgery; 1000 (75.0%) had >6 months of surveillance.The rate of CR-progression was 15.3% (n = 153) based on size increase (n = 63, 6.3%), main-duct involvement (n = 48, 4.8%), symptoms (n = 8, 5.0%), or other criteria (n = 34, 3.4%). At a median follow-up of 6.6 years (interquartile range: 3.0-10.26), 17 patients (1.7%) developed IC. Those with CR-progression developed IC in 11.1% (n = 17) and high-grade dysplasia (HGD) in 6.5% (n = 10). Nearly half of the cancers were not contiguous with the surveyed SB-IPMN.Size ≥3 cm was not associated with HGD/IC ( P = 0.232). HGD/IC was least common in CR-progression determined by size growth (6.3%) versus main-duct involvement (24%) or other (43%, P < 0.001)Patients with CR-progression demonstrated improved survival (overall survival) with resection on time-to-event ( P < 0.001) and multivariate Cox regression (hazard ratio = 0.205, 0.096-0.439, P < 0.001) analyses. Overall survival was not improved with resection in all patients ( P = 0.244).ConclusionsCR-progression for SB-IPMNs is uncommon, with the development of cancer anywhere in the pancreas being rare. Initial size should not drive resection. Long-term and consistent nonoperative surveillance is warranted, with surgery currently reserved for CR-progression, knowing that the majority of these still harbor low-grade pathology.Copyright © 2024 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

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