• Pan Zhang, C Raina MacIntyre, Xin Chen, and Abrar A Chughtai.
• School of Population Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.
• Mil Med. 2024 Jun 13.

IntroductionThe modified Grunow-Finke tool (mGFT) is an improved scoring system for distinguishing unnatural outbreaks from natural ones. The 1979 Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak was due to the inhalation of anthrax spores from a military laboratory, confirmed by Russian President Boris Yeltsin in 1992. At the time the Soviet Union insisted that the outbreak was caused by meat contaminated by diseased animals. At the time there was no available risk assessment tool capable of thoroughly examine the origin of the outbreak.MethodsThis study aimed to retrospectively apply the mGFT to test its ability to correctly identify the origin of the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak of 1979 as unnatural, using data available up to 1992, before the disclosure of a laboratory leak. Data spanning from 1979 to 1992 were collected through literature reviews. Evidence related to each mGFT criterion was scored on a scale of 0 to 3 and independently reviewed by 3 assessors. These scores were then multiplied with a weighting factor and summed to obtain a maximum score. A final score exceeding 30 was indicative of an unnatural origin.ResultsThe mGFT results assigned a total of 47 points to the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak, suggesting an unnatural origin with a 78% likelihood.ConclusionsThese findings align with the confirmed unnatural origin of the outbreak, highlighting the value of tools such as the mGFT in identifying unnatural outbreaks. Such tools integrate both intelligence evidence and biological evidence in the identification of unnatural outbreaks. The use of such tools for identifying unnatural outbreaks is limited. Outbreak investigation can be improved if risk assessment tools become integral to routine public health practice and outbreak investigations.© The Association of Military Surgeons of the United States 2024. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site–for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.

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