Validation of the China mortality prediction model in trauma

Medicine · Jun 2024

Validation of the China mortality prediction model in trauma based on the ICD-10-CM codes.

The China mortality prediction model in trauma, based on the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification lexicon (CMPMIT-ICD-10), is a novel model for predicting outcomes in patients who experienced trauma. This model has not yet been validated using data acquired from patients at other trauma centers in China. This retrospective study used data retrieved from the Peking University People's Hospital discharge database and included all patients admitted for trauma between 2012 and 2022 for model validation. ⋯ In total, 23,299 patients were included in this study, with an overall mortality rate of 1.2%. CMPMIT-ICD-10 showed good discrimination and calibration, with an area under the curve of 0.84 (95% confidence interval: 0.82-0.87) and a Brier score of 0.02. The performance of the CMPMIT-ICD-10 during validation was satisfactory, and the application of the model will be scaled up in future studies.

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- Zi-Xiao Zhang, Yan-Hua Wang, Zhong-Di Liu, Tian-Bing Wang, and Wei Huang.
- Trauma Medicine Center, Peking University People's Hospital, Beijing, China.
- Medicine (Baltimore). 2024 Jun 21; 103 (25): e38537e38537.
AbstractThe China mortality prediction model in trauma, based on the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification lexicon (CMPMIT-ICD-10), is a novel model for predicting outcomes in patients who experienced trauma. This model has not yet been validated using data acquired from patients at other trauma centers in China. This retrospective study used data retrieved from the Peking University People's Hospital discharge database and included all patients admitted for trauma between 2012 and 2022 for model validation. Model performance was categorized into discrimination and calibration. In total, 23,299 patients were included in this study, with an overall mortality rate of 1.2%. CMPMIT-ICD-10 showed good discrimination and calibration, with an area under the curve of 0.84 (95% confidence interval: 0.82-0.87) and a Brier score of 0.02. The performance of the CMPMIT-ICD-10 during validation was satisfactory, and the application of the model will be scaled up in future studies.Copyright © 2024 the Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.

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Validation of the China mortality prediction model in trauma based on the ICD-10-CM codes.

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