• Anastasia Bougea, Tajedin Derikvand, and Efthymia Efthimiopoulou.
• 1st Department of Neurology, Eginition Hospital, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, 11572 Athens, Greece.
• Medicina (Kaunas). 2024 May 26; 60 (6).

AbstractBackground and Objectives: Currently, no tool exists to predict clinical outcomes in patients with advanced Parkinson's disease (PD) under levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel (LCIG) treatment. The aim of this study was to develop a novel deep neural network model to predict the clinical outcomes of patients with advanced PD after two years of LCIG therapy. Materials and Methods: This was a longitudinal, 24-month observational study of 59 patients with advanced PD in a multicenter registry under LCIG treatment from September 2019 to September 2021, including 43 movement disorder centers. The data set includes 649 measurements of patients, which make an irregular time series, and they are turned into regular time series during the preprocessing phase. Motor status was assessed with the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) Parts III (off) and IV. The NMS was assessed by the NMS Questionnaire (NMSQ) and the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), the quality of life by PDQ-39, and severity by Hoehn and Yahr (HY). Multivariate linear regression, ARIMA, SARIMA, and Long Short-Term Memory-Recurrent NeuralNetwork (LSTM-RNN) models were used. Results: LCIG significantly improved dyskinesia duration and quality of life, with men experiencing a 19% and women a 10% greater improvement, respectively. Multivariate linear regression models showed that UPDRS-III decreased by 1.5 and 4.39 units per one-unit increase in the PDQ-39 and UPDRS-IV indexes, respectively. Although the ARIMA-(2,0,2) model is the best one with AIC criterion 101.8 and validation criteria MAE = 0.25, RMSE = 0.59, and RS = 0.49, it failed to predict PD patients' features over a long period of time. Among all the time series models, the LSTM-RNN model predicts these clinical characteristics with the highest accuracy (MAE = 0.057, RMSE = 0.079, RS = 0.0053, mean square error = 0.0069). Conclusions: The LSTM-RNN model predicts, with the highest accuracy, gender-dependent clinical outcomes in patients with advanced PD after two years of LCIG therapy.

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