• Justin Im, Mohamed A R Soliman, Alexander O Aguirre, Esteban Quiceno, Evan Burns, Ali M A Khan, Cathleen C Kuo, Rehman A Baig, Asham Khan, Ryan M Hess, John Pollina, and Jeffrey P Mullin.
• Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences at University at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York, USA.
• Neurosurgery. 2024 Jun 27.

Background And ObjectivesIn recent years, there has been an outpouring of scoring systems that were built to predict outcomes after various surgical procedures; however, research validating these studies in spinal surgery is quite limited. In this study, we evaluated the predictability of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS NSQIP SRC) for various postoperative outcomes after spinal deformity surgery.MethodsA retrospective chart review was conducted to identify patients who underwent spinal deformity surgery at our hospital between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2022. Demographic and clinical data necessary to use the ACS NSQIP SRC and postoperative outcomes were collected for these patients. Predictability was analyzed using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic curves and Brier scores.ResultsAmong the 159 study patients, the mean age was 64.5 ± 9.5 years, mean body mass index was 31.9 ± 6.6, and 95 (59.7%) patients were women. The outcome most accurately predicted by the ACS NSQIP SRC was postoperative pneumonia (observed = 5.0% vs predicted = 3.2%, AUC = 0.75, Brier score = 0.05), but its predictability still fell below the acceptable threshold. Other outcomes that were underpredicted by the ACS NSQIP SRC were readmission within 30 days (observed = 13.8% vs predicted = 9.0%, AUC = 0.63, Brier score = 0.12), rate of discharge to nursing home or rehabilitation facilities (observed = 56.0% vs predicted = 46.6%, AUC = 0.59, Brier = 0.26), reoperation (observed 11.9% vs predicted 5.4%, AUC = 0.60, Brier = 0.11), surgical site infection (observed 9.4% vs predicted 3.5%, AUC = 0.61, Brier = 0.05), and any complication (observed 33.3% vs 19%, AUC = 0.65, Brier = 0.23). Predicted and observed length of stay were not significantly associated (β = 0.132, P = .47).ConclusionThe ACS NSQIP SRC is a poor predictor of outcomes after spinal deformity surgery.Copyright © Congress of Neurological Surgeons 2024. All rights reserved.

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