• Yan Xie, Taeyoung Choi, and Ziyad Al-Aly.
• From the Division of Pharmacoepidemiology (Y.X.), Clinical Epidemiology Center, Research and Development Service (Y.X., T.C., Z.A.-A.), and the Nephrology Section, Medicine Service (Z.A.-A.), Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System, the Veterans Research and Education Foundation of St. Louis (Y.X., T.C., Z.A.-A.), the Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine (Z.A.-A.), and the Institute for Public Health, Washington University in St. Louis (Z.A.-A.) - all in St. Louis.
• N. Engl. J. Med. 2024 Aug 8; 391 (6): 515525515-525.

BackgroundPostacute sequelae of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection (PASC) can affect many organ systems. However, temporal changes during the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, including the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, may have affected the risk and burden of PASC. Whether the risk and burden of PASC have changed over the course of the pandemic is unclear.MethodsWe used health records of the Department of Veterans Affairs to build a study population of 441,583 veterans with SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 1, 2020, and January 31, 2022, and 4,748,504 noninfected contemporaneous controls. We estimated the cumulative incidence of PASC at 1 year after SARS-CoV-2 infection during the pre-delta, delta, and omicron eras of the Covid-19 pandemic.ResultsAmong unvaccinated persons infected with SARS-CoV-2, the cumulative incidence of PASC during the first year after infection was 10.42 events per 100 persons (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.22 to 10.64) in the pre-delta era, 9.51 events per 100 persons (95% CI, 9.26 to 9.75) in the delta era, and 7.76 events per 100 persons (95% CI, 7.57 to 7.98) in the omicron era (difference between the omicron and pre-delta eras, -2.66 events per 100 persons [95% CI, -2.93 to -2.36]; difference between the omicron and delta eras, -1.75 events per 100 persons [95% CI, -2.08 to -1.42]). Among vaccinated persons, the cumulative incidence of PASC at 1 year was 5.34 events per 100 persons (95% CI, 5.10 to 5.58) during the delta era and 3.50 events per 100 persons (95% CI, 3.31 to 3.71) during the omicron era (difference between the omicron and delta eras, -1.83 events per 100 persons; 95% CI, -2.14 to -1.52). Vaccinated persons had a lower cumulative incidence of PASC at 1 year than unvaccinated persons (difference during the delta era, -4.18 events per 100 persons [95% CI, -4.47 to -3.88]; difference during the omicron era, -4.26 events per 100 persons [95% CI, -4.49 to -4.05]). Decomposition analyses showed 5.23 (95% CI, 4.97 to 5.47) fewer PASC events per 100 persons at 1 year during the omicron era than during the pre-delta and delta eras combined; 28.11% of the decrease (95% CI, 25.57 to 30.50) was attributable to era-related effects (changes in the virus and other temporal effects), and 71.89% (95% CI, 69.50 to 74.43) was attributable to vaccines.ConclusionsThe cumulative incidence of PASC during the first year after SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased over the course of the pandemic, but the risk of PASC remained substantial even among vaccinated persons who had SARS-CoV-2 infection in the omicron era. (Supported by the Department of Veterans Affairs.).Copyright © 2024 Massachusetts Medical Society.

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