• Sarah J Holdsworth-Carson, Jessica Chung, Dorothy A Machalek, Rebecca Li, Byung Kyu Jun, Meaghan J Griffiths, Molly Churchill, Tristan McCaughey, Debbie Nisbet, Uri Dior, Jacqueline F Donoghue, Grant W Montgomery, Charlotte Reddington, Jane E Girling, Martin Healey, and RogersPeter A WPAWDepartment of Obstetrics, Gynaecology and Newborn Health, University of Melbourne and Gynaecology Research Centre, Royal Women's Hospital, Grattan St & Flemington Rd, Parkville, VIC, 3052, Australia..
• Department of Obstetrics, Gynaecology and Newborn Health, University of Melbourne and Gynaecology Research Centre, Royal Women's Hospital, Grattan St & Flemington Rd, Parkville, VIC, 3052, Australia. Sarah.Carson@epworth.org.au.
• Bmc Med. 2024 Aug 7; 22 (1): 320320.

BackgroundDespite surgical and pharmacological interventions, endometriosis can recur. Reliable information regarding risk of recurrence following a first diagnosis is scant. The aim of this study was to examine clinical and survey data in the setting of disease recurrence to identify predictors of risk of endometriosis recurrence.MethodsThis observational study reviewed data from 794 patients having surgery for pelvic pain or endometriosis. Patients were stratified into two analytic groups based on self-reported or surgically confirmed recurrent endometriosis. Statistical analyses included univariate, followed by multivariate logistic regression to identify risk factors of recurrence, with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regularisation. Risk-calibrated Supersparse Linear Integer Models (RiskSLIM) and survival analyses (with Lasso) were undertaken to identify predictive features of recurrence.ResultsSeveral significant features were repeatedly identified in association with recurrence, including adhesions, high rASRM score, deep disease, bowel lesions, adenomyosis, emergency room attendance for pelvic pain, younger age at menarche, higher gravidity, high blood pressure and older age. In the surgically confirmed group, with a score of 5, the RiskSLIM method was able to predict the risk of recurrence (compared to a single diagnosis) at 95.3% and included adenomyosis and adhesions in the model. Survival analysis further highlighted bowel lesions, adhesions and adenomyosis.ConclusionsFollowing an initial diagnosis of endometriosis, clinical decision-making regarding disease management should take into consideration the presence of bowel lesions, adhesions and adenomyosis, which increase the risk of endometriosis recurrence.© 2024. The Author(s).

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