• James A Diao, Ivy Shi, Venkatesh L Murthy, Thomas A Buckley, Chirag J Patel, Emma Pierson, Robert W Yeh, Dhruv S Kazi, Rishi K Wadhera, and Arjun K Manrai.
• Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.
• JAMA. 2024 Sep 24; 332 (12): 9891000989-1000.

ImportanceSince 2013, the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) have recommended the pooled cohort equations (PCEs) for estimating the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). An AHA scientific advisory group recently developed the Predicting Risk of cardiovascular disease EVENTs (PREVENT) equations, which incorporated kidney measures, removed race as an input, and improved calibration in contemporary populations. PREVENT is known to produce ASCVD risk predictions that are lower than those produced by the PCEs, but the potential clinical implications have not been quantified.ObjectiveTo estimate the number of US adults who would experience changes in risk categorization, treatment eligibility, or clinical outcomes when applying PREVENT equations to existing ACC and AHA guidelines.Design, Setting, And ParticipantsNationally representative cross-sectional sample of 7765 US adults aged 30 to 79 years who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys of 2011 to March 2020, which had response rates ranging from 47% to 70%.Main Outcomes And MeasuresDifferences in predicted 10-year ASCVD risk, ACC and AHA risk categorization, eligibility for statin or antihypertensive therapy, and projected occurrences of myocardial infarction or stroke.ResultsIn a nationally representative sample of 7765 US adults aged 30 to 79 years (median age, 53 years; 51.3% women), it was estimated that using PREVENT equations would reclassify approximately half of US adults to lower ACC and AHA risk categories (53.0% [95% CI, 51.2%-54.8%]) and very few US adults to higher risk categories (0.41% [95% CI, 0.25%-0.62%]). The number of US adults receiving or recommended for preventive treatment would decrease by an estimated 14.3 million (95% CI, 12.6 million-15.9 million) for statin therapy and 2.62 million (95% CI, 2.02 million-3.21 million) for antihypertensive therapy. The study estimated that, over 10 years, these decreases in treatment eligibility could result in 107 000 additional occurrences of myocardial infarction or stroke. Eligibility changes would affect twice as many men as women and a greater proportion of Black adults than White adults.Conclusion And RelevanceBy assigning lower ASCVD risk predictions, application of the PREVENT equations to existing treatment thresholds could reduce eligibility for statin and antihypertensive therapy among 15.8 million US adults.

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