• Maniraj Neupane, Sarah Warner, Alex Mancera, Junfeng Sun, Christina Yek, Sadia H Sarzynski, Roxana Amirahmadi, Mary Richert, Emad Chishti, Morgan Walker, Bruce J Swihart, Steven H Mitchell, John Hick, Bram Rochwerg, Eddy Fan, Cumhur Y Demirkale, and Sameer S Kadri.
• Critical Care Medicine Department, National Institutes of Health Clinical Center, and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, Maryland (M.N., S.W., A.M., J.S., C.Y., R.A., M.R., M.W., B.J.S., C.Y.D., S.S.K.).
• Ann. Intern. Med. 2024 Oct 1; 177 (10): 137013801370-1380.

BackgroundImbalances between hospital caseload and care resources that strained U.S. hospitals during the pandemic have persisted after the pandemic amid ongoing staff shortages. Understanding which hospital types were more resilient to pandemic overcrowding-related excess deaths may prioritize patient safety during future crises.ObjectiveTo determine whether hospital type classified by capabilities and resources (that is, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [ECMO] capability, multiplicity of intensive care unit [ICU] types, and large or small hospital) influenced COVID-19 volume-outcome relationships during Delta wave surges.DesignRetrospective cohort study.Setting620 U.S. hospitals in the PINC AI Healthcare Database.ParticipantsAdult inpatients with COVID-19 admitted July to November 2021.MeasurementsHospital-months were ranked by previously validated surge index (severity-weighted COVID-19 inpatient caseload relative to hospital bed capacity) percentiles. Hierarchical models were used to evaluate the effect of log-transformed surge index on the marginally adjusted probability of in-hospital mortality or discharge to hospice. Effect modification was assessed for by 4 mutually exclusive hospital types.ResultsAmong 620 hospitals recording 223 380 inpatients with COVID-19 during the Delta wave, there were 208 ECMO-capable, 216 multi-ICU, 36 large (≥200 beds) single-ICU, and 160 small (<200 beds) single-ICU hospitals. Overall, 50 752 (23%) patients required admission to the ICU, and 34 274 (15.3%) died. The marginally adjusted probability for mortality was 5.51% (95% CI, 4.53% to 6.50%) per unit increase in the log surge index (strain attributable mortality = 7375 [CI, 5936 to 8813] or 1 in 5 COVID-19 deaths). The test for interaction showed no difference (P = 0.32) in log surge index-mortality relationship across 4 hospital types. Results were consistent after excluding transferred patients, restricting to patients with acute respiratory failure and mechanical ventilation, and using alternative strain metrics.LimitationResidual confounding.ConclusionComparably detrimental relationships between COVID-19 caseload and survival were seen across all hospital types, including highly advanced centers, and well beyond the pandemic's learning curve. These lessons from the pandemic heighten the need to minimize caseload surges and their effects across all hospital types during public health and staffing crises.Primary Funding SourceIntramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health Clinical Center.

36 keywords...

hide…