• Stephen J Usala, David D Vineyard, Maria Kastis, A Alexandre Trindade, and Harvinder Singh Gill.
• Department of Internal Medicine, Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center, Amarillo, TX 79106, USA.
• Medicina (Kaunas). 2024 Jul 26; 60 (8).

AbstractBackground and Objectives: Fertility tracking apps and devices are now currently available, but urinary hormone levels lack accuracy and sensitivity in timing the start of the 6-day fertile window and the precise 24 h interval of transition from ovulation to the luteal phase. We hypothesized the serum hormones estradiol (E2) and progesterone (P) might be better biomarkers for these major ovulatory cycle events, using appropriate mathematical tools. Materials and Methods: Four women provided daily blood samples for serum E2, P, and LH (luteinizing hormone) levels throughout their entire ovulatory cycles, which were indexed to the first day of dominant follicle (DF) collapse (defined as Day 0) determined by transvaginal sonography; therefore, ovulation occurred in the 24 h interval of Day -1 (last day of maximum diameter DF) to Day 0. For comparison, a MiraTM fertility monitor was used to measure daily morning urinary LH (ULH), estrone-3-glucuronide (E3G), and pregnanediol-3-glucuronide (PDG) levels in three of these cycles. Results: There were more fluctuations in the MiraTM hormone levels compared to the serum levels. Previously described methods, the Fertility Indicator Equation (FIE) and Area Under the Curve (AUC) algorithm, were tested for identifying the start of the fertile window and the ovulation/luteal transition point using the day-specific hormone levels. The FIE with E2 levels predicted the start of the 6-day fertile window on Day -7 (two cycles) and Day -5 (two cycles), whereas no identifying signal was found with E3G. However, both pairs of (E2, P) and (E3G, PDG) levels with the AUC algorithm signaled the Day -1 to Day 0 ovulation/luteal transition interval in all cycles. Conclusions: serum E2 and (E2, P) were better biomarkers for signaling the start of the 6-day fertile window, but both MiraTM and serum hormone levels were successful in timing the [Day -1, Day 0] ovulatory/luteal transition interval. These results can presently be applied to urinary hormone monitors for fertility tracking and have implications for the direction of future fertility tracking technology.

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