• Liam Musto, Aiden Smith, Coral Pepper, Sylwia Bujkiewicz, and Matthew Bown.
• Department of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Leicester, NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester, UK.
• Br J Surg. 2024 Aug 30; 111 (9).

BackgroundThis systematic review aimed to investigate the current state of risk prediction for abdominal aortic aneurysm in the literature, identifying and comparing published models and describing their performance and applicability to a population-based targeted screening strategy.MethodsElectronic databases MEDLINE (via Ovid), Embase (via Ovid), MedRxiv, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library were searched for papers reporting or validating risk prediction models for abdominal aortic aneurysm. Studies were included only if they were developed on a cohort or study group derived from the general population and used multiple variables with at least one modifiable risk factor. Risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool. A synthesis and comparison of the identified models was undertaken.ResultsThe search identified 4813 articles. After full-text review, 37 prediction models were identified, of which 4 were unique predictive models that were reported in full. Applicability was poor when considering targeted screening strategies using electronic health record-based populations. Common risk factors used for the predictive models were explored across all 37 models; the most common risk factors in predictive models for abdominal aortic aneurysm were: age, sex, biometrics (such as height, weight, or BMI), smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, and history of heart disease. Few models had undergone standardized model development, adequate external validation, or impact evaluation.ConclusionThis study identified four risk models that can be replicated and used to predict abdominal aortic aneurysm with acceptable levels of discrimination. None of the models have been validated externally.© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of BJS Foundation Ltd.

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