• Tron Anders Moger, Jon Helgheim Holte, Olav Amundsen, Silje Bjørnsen Haavaag, Øystein Døhl, Line Kildal Bragstad, Ragnhild Hellesø, Nina Køpke Vøllestad, and Trond Tjerbo.
• Department of Health Management and Health Economics, Institute of Health and Society, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
• Scand J Prim Health Care. 2024 Sep 16: 1111-11.

ObjectiveChronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common condition associated with age, multimorbidity and frequently involves the use of health care across levels. Understanding the factors associated with the initiation of long-term care is important when planning the future need for services. We describe healthcare use before and after the reception of any home care. We further studied the associations between healthcare use and first registered home care service and from first registered home care service to nursing home admission or death.Design And SubjectsPatients residing in Oslo or Trondheim at the time of first contact with a COPD primary diagnosis, 2009-2018. Patient data were linked across national and municipal registries, covering healthcare and sociodemographics. The sample consisted of 16,738 individuals.ResultsThere was a marked increase in inpatient and outpatient hospital contacts in the years prior to and after the reception of any home care. Adjusted for comorbidities and sociodemographics, high numbers of GP consultations, and inpatient and outpatient hospital contacts for respiratory diagnoses were associated with a significantly higher likelihood of receiving home care the next year (hazard odds ratios > 1.3). Following the reception of home care, the type of home care service received (e.g. home nursing or short-term rehabilitation/treatment) was more important than outpatient services in predicting next-year nursing home admission or death.ConclusionIncluding data on prior outpatient care when predicting future need for home care is beneficial. A high frequency (top 10%) of yearly GP, in- or outpatient hospital contacts can imply that the patient may be in need of home care in the near future.

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