• Gwyneth A Sullivan, Yao Tian, Regina Royan, Lynn Wei Huang, Kelsey J Rydland, Selwyn O Rogers, Rashmi Kabre, Maryann Mason, Mehul V Raval, and Anne M Stey.
• Division of Pediatric Surgery, Department of Surgery, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA. gwynethsullivan@gmail.com.
• J Urban Health. 2024 Oct 1; 101 (5): 101510251015-1025.

AbstractOur objective was to determine whether Child Opportunity Index (COI), a measure of neighborhood socioeconomic and built environment specific to children, mediated the relationship of census tract Black or Hispanic predominance with increased rates of census tract violence-related mortality. The hypothesis was that COI would partially mediate the relationship. This cross-sectional study combined data from the American Community Survey 5-year estimates, the COI 2.0, and the Illinois Violent Death Reporting System 2015-2019 for the City of Chicago. Individuals ages 0-19 years were included. The primary exposure was census tract Black, Hispanic, White, and other race predominance (> 50% of population). The primary outcome was census tract violence-related mortality. A mediation analysis was performed to evaluate the role of COI as a potential mediator. Multivariable logistic regression modeling census tract violence-related mortality demonstrated a direct effect of census tract Black predominance (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.30-5.14) on violence-related mortality compared to White predominance. There was no association of census tract Hispanic predominance with violence-related mortality compared to White predominance (aOR 1.57, 95% CI 0.88-2.84). Approximately 64.9% (95% CI 60.2-80.0%) of the effect of census tract Black predominance and 67.9% (95% CI 61.2-200%) of the effect of census tract Hispanic predominance on violence-related mortality was indirect via COI. COI partially mediated the effect of census tract Black and Hispanic predominance on census tract violence-related mortality. Interventions that target neighborhood social and economic factors should be considered to reduce violence-related mortality among children and adolescents.© 2024. The New York Academy of Medicine.

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