• Yoann Gaboreau, Paul Frappé, Celine Vermorel, Alison Foote, Jean-Luc Bosson, Gilles Pernod, and CACAO study investigators .
• Department of General Practice, Université Grenoble Alpes, 38000 Grenoble, France.
• Fam Pract. 2024 Oct 24.

BackgroundThe ability of bleeding risk scores to predict major bleeding (MB) or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding (CRNMB) remains a topic of contention, particularly in nonselected patients in family practice. In addition, the capacity to predict bleeding risk using simple variables has yet to be established.ObjectivesThe main objective was to confirm that severe anemia was the most predictive factor for the estimation of bleeding risk in patients treated with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs). Secondary objectives were to test the capacity of different bleeding scores to detect high-risk patients. Subsequently, the impact of functional decline on bleeding incidence was explored.MethodsThe CACAO study was a multicenter prospective cohort study of patients who, due to nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) and/or venous thromboembolism (VTE), had been prescribed an oral anticoagulant by their general practitioner (GP) as a prophylactic measure. Patient characteristics were collected at the time of inclusion by GPs, who then monitored them in accordance with standard practice for one year. MB and CRNMB were the main outcomes for one year. By applying this approach, a total of 13 scores were analyzed.ResultsAaemia was found to be strongly associated with MB (HR: 2.77, 95% CI: 1.2-6.36), with a particularly pronounced association observed in cases of severe anemia (HR: 12.9, 95% CI: 2.76-60.35). Twelve out of 27 MB cases were not identified by at least half of the scores. By contrast, functional decline was identified as a novel factor associated with MB (HR: 2.45, 95% CI: 1.13-5.31).ConclusionsPreexisting anemia is a major prognostic factor associated with the occurrence of bleeding. It seems relevant to suggest that functional decline should be considered by GPs when assessing bleeding risk.© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.

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