• Vahe S Panossian, Dias Argandykov, Suzanne C Arnold, Anthony Gebran, Charudutt N Paranjape, John O Hwabejire, Michael P DeWane, George C Velmahos, Haytham Ma Kaafarani, and POTTER Validation Group.
• Division of Trauma, Emergency Surgery, and Surgical Critical Care, Department of Surgery, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA.
• J. Am. Coll. Surg. 2024 Oct 28.

BackgroundThe POTTER calculator, a widely used interpretable artificial intelligence (AI) risk calculator, has been validated in population-based studies and shown to predict outcomes in emergency general surgery (EGS) patients better than surgeons. We sought to prospectively validate POTTER.Study DesignPatients undergoing an emergency exploratory laparotomy for non-trauma indications at two Academic Medical Centers between June 2020 and March 2022 were included. POTTER preoperative risk calculations and postoperative outcomes were systematically recorded. POTTER's performance in predicting 30-day postoperative mortality, septic shock, respiratory failure, bleeding, and pneumonia was assessed using the c-statistic methodology.ResultsA total of 361 patients were included. The median age was 63 years (IQR: 51-72), 45.4% were females, and the overall mortality and morbidity were 24.1% and 51.4%, respectively. POTTER predicted mortality accurately with a c-statistic of 0.90. POTTER also accurately predicted the occurrence of individual postoperative complications, with c-statistics ranging between 0.80 and 0.89.ConclusionThis is the first prospective validation of the AI-enabled POTTER calculator. The superior accuracy, user-friendliness, and interpretability of POTTER make it a useful bedside tool for preoperative patient and family counseling.Copyright © 2024 by the American College of Surgeons. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

9 keywords...

hide…