• Nicholas Henschke, Christopher G Maher, Kathryn M Refshauge, Robert D Herbert, Robert G Cumming, Jane Bleasel, John York, Anurina Das, and James H McAuley.
• Musculoskeletal Division, The George Institute for International Health, Sydney, Australia.
• BMJ. 2008 Jan 1;337:a171.

ObjectiveTo estimate the one year prognosis and identify prognostic factors in cases of recent onset low back pain managed in primary care.DesignCohort study with one year follow-up.SettingPrimary care clinics in Sydney, Australia.ParticipantsAn inception cohort of 973 consecutive primary care patients (mean age 43.3, 54.8% men) with non-specific low back pain of less than two weeks' duration recruited from the clinics of 170 general practitioners, physiotherapists, and chiropractors.Main Outcome MeasuresParticipants completed a baseline questionnaire and were contacted six weeks, three months, and 12 months after the initial consultation. Recovery was assessed in terms of return to work, return to function, and resolution of pain. The association between potential prognostic factors and time to recovery was modelled with Cox regression.ResultsThe follow-up rate over the 12 months was more than 97%. Half of those who reduced their work status at baseline had returned to previous work status within 14 days (95% confidence interval 11 to 17 days) and 83% had returned to previous work status by three months. Disability (median recovery time 31 days, 25 to 37 days) and pain (median 58 days, 52 to 63 days) took much longer to resolve. Only 72% of participants had completely recovered 12 months after the baseline consultation. Older age, compensation cases, higher pain intensity, longer duration of low back pain before consultation, more days of reduced activity because of lower back pain before consultation, feelings of depression, and a perceived risk of persistence were each associated with a longer time to recovery.ConclusionsIn this cohort of patients with acute low back pain in primary care, prognosis was not as favourable as claimed in clinical practice guidelines. Recovery was slow for most patients. Nearly a third of patients did not recover from the presenting episode within a year.

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