• Ravikrishna Mamidanna, Zhifang Ni, Oliver Anderson, Sir David Spiegelhalter, Alex Bottle, Paul Aylin, Omar Faiz, and George B Hanna.
• *Department of Surgery and Cancer, Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother Wing, St Mary's Hospital, Imperial College London, London, UK †Statistical Laboratory, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK ‡Dr Foster Unit at Imperial College, Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK §Surgical Epidemiology, Trials and Outcome Centre (SETOC), St Mark's Hospital and Academic Institute, Harrow, Middlesex, UK.
• Ann. Surg. 2016 Apr 1; 263 (4): 727-32.

ObjectiveThe aim of the study was to assess whether there is a proficiency curve-like relationship between surgeon volume and operative mortality and determine the minimum surgeon volume for optimum operative mortality.BackgroundThe inverse relationship between hospital volume and operative mortality is well-established for esophageal, gastric, and pancreatic cancer. The recommended minimum surgeon volumes are however uncertain.MethodsWe retrieved data on esophagectomies, gastrectomies, and pancreatectomies for cancer from the NHS Hospital Episodes Statistics database from April 2000 to March 2010. We defined mortality as in-hospital death within 30 days of surgery. We determined whether there was a proficiency curve relationship by inspecting surgeon volume-mortality graphs after adjusting for patient age, sex, socioeconomic, and comorbidity indices. We then statistically determined the minimum surgeon volume that produced a mortality rate insignificantly different from the optimum of the curve.ResultsSixteen thousand five hundred seventy-two esophagectomies, 12,622 gastrectomies, and 9116 pancreatectomies were examined. Surgeon volume ranged from 2 to 29 esophagectomies, from 1 to 14 gastrectomies, and from 2 to 31 pancreatectomies per surgeon per year. We demonstrated a proficiency relationship between surgeon volume and mortality in esophageal, gastric, and pancreatic cancer surgery. Each additional case of esophagectomy, gastrectomy, and pancreatectomy would reduce 30-day mortality odds by 3.4%, 7.2%, and 4.1%, respectively. However, as surgeon volume increased, mortality rate continued to improve. Therefore, we were unable to recommend minimum surgeon volume.ConclusionsMortality after resections for esophageal, gastric, and pancreatic cancer falls as surgeon volume rises up to 30 cases. Within this range, we did not demonstrate any statistical threshold that could be recommended as a minimum volume target.

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