• Anesthesiology · Nov 1999

    Forecasting surgical groups' total hours of elective cases for allocation of block time: application of time series analysis to operating room management.

    • F Dexter, A Macario, F Qian, and R D Traub.
    • Department of Anesthesia, University of Iowa, Iowa City 52242, USA. franklin-dexter@uiowa.edu
    • Anesthesiology. 1999 Nov 1;91(5):1501-8.

    BackgroundAllocation of the correct amount of operating room (OR) "block time" can provide surgeons with access to sufficient OR time to complete their elective cases while optimally matching staffing with the elective case workload (to maximize labor productivity). To evaluate how to predict accurately total hours of elective cases performed by a surgical group using data from surgical services information systems, the authors addressed the following questions: (1) How many previous 4-week periods of data should be used to minimize error in forecasting a surgical group's total hours of elective cases? (2) Using the number of 4-week periods from question #1, can we detect trends or correlations between successive periods that could be used to improve forecasting accuracy? (3) How can results from questions #1 and #2 be used to calculate an upper prediction bound (upper limit) for the total hours of elective cases that will be completed in a future period? Prediction bounds can be used to budget staffing accurately.MethodsTime series analysis was performed on total hours of elective cases over 39 consecutive 4-week periods from 17 surgical groups.ResultsThe average of 12 consecutive periods' total hours of elective cases had an appropriate error profile. The observations within each series of 12 consecutive 4-week periods followed a normal distribution, with each observation of total hours of elective cases not correlated with the subsequent observation.ConclusionsThe average of the most recent 12 4-week periods can be used to predict surgical groups' future use of block time.

      Pubmed     Full text   Copy Citation     Plaintext  

      Add institutional full text...

    Notes

     
    Knowledge, pearl, summary or comment to share?
    300 characters remaining
    help        
    You can also include formatting, links, images and footnotes in your notes
    • Simple formatting can be added to notes, such as *italics*, _underline_ or **bold**.
    • Superscript can be denoted by <sup>text</sup> and subscript <sub>text</sub>.
    • Numbered or bulleted lists can be created using either numbered lines 1. 2. 3., hyphens - or asterisks *.
    • Links can be included with: [my link to pubmed](http://pubmed.com)
    • Images can be included with: ![alt text](https://bestmedicaljournal.com/study_graph.jpg "Image Title Text")
    • For footnotes use [^1](This is a footnote.) inline.
    • Or use an inline reference [^1] to refer to a longer footnote elseweher in the document [^1]: This is a long footnote..

    hide…