• B J Flehinger, M Kimmel, T Polyak, and M R Melamed.
• Mathematical Sciences Department, T. J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York 10598.
• Cancer. 1993 Sep 1;72(5):1573-80.

BackgroundThe Mayo Lung Project (MLP) reported lung cancer incidence and mortality in a population offered chest radiographs and sputum cytologic screening examinations every 4 months and a population offered only the Mayo Clinic advice to undergo annual examination. No mortality benefit attributable to screening was observed after 6 years of observation and at least 1 year of follow-up.MethodsThe authors describe a simulation study designed to estimate from Mayo data the parameters in a mathematical model of the natural history of lung cancer and to estimate the potential benefit associated with periodic screening of high-risk people starting at 45 years of age.ResultsIt was found that the mean duration of Stage I non-small cell lung cancer is at least 4 years and that rates of Stage I detectability and curability are less than 25% and 35%, respectively.ConclusionsA trial of the magnitude, duration, and contamination of the MLP would have a less than 20% probability of showing significant benefit from screening; however, long-term annual screening might result in a modest decrease in lung cancer mortality, ranging from 0% to 13%. A greater benefit would accrue from improved detection and treatment.

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