• Eero Waris, Marja Eskelin, Heikki Hermunen, Olli Kiviluoto, and Hannu Paajanen.
• Department of Surgery and Radiology, Central Military Hospital, Helsinki, Finland. eero.waris@helsinki.fi
• Spine. 2007 Mar 15;32(6):681-4.

Study DesignA prospective, cohort clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) study of patients with low back pain.ObjectiveTo study if lumbar disc degeneration (DD), diagnosed in young patients with low back pain by using MRI will predict chronic pain, disc herniation, or functional disability after a 17-year follow-up.Summary Of Background DataIn 1987, 75 male Finnish conscripts aged 20 years, with low back pain hindering their military service, were studied using MRI at 0.02 T.MethodsIn 2003, 32 patients were reexamined with MRI at 1.0 T. The history of low back illness during the follow-up and current functional outcome were recorded.ResultsIn 1987, 69% of the 32-patient cohort had DD in one or more lumbar discs. In 2003, all subjects had DD in MRI. The mean number of degenerated discs in each subject increased from 1.1 to 3.0. A total of 76% of discs degenerated in 1987 were herniated in 2003, whereas only 29% of well-hydrated discs in 1987 were herniated at the time of follow-up (P = 0.0002). During 17 years of follow-up, 3 patients had undergone spinal surgery.ConclusionsEarly DD in adolescent patients with low back pain predicted the evolution of enhanced DD and herniation in adulthood, but it was not associated with severe low back pain or increased frequency of spinal surgery.

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