• American heart journal · Sep 2012

    Predicting the risk of unplanned readmission or death within 30 days of discharge after a heart failure hospitalization.

    • Anita G Au, Finlay A McAlister, Jeffrey A Bakal, Justin Ezekowitz, Padma Kaul, and Carl van Walraven.
    • Division of General Internal Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada.
    • Am. Heart J. 2012 Sep 1;164(3):365-72.

    BackgroundThe accuracy of current models to predict the risk of unplanned readmission or death after a heart failure (HF) hospitalization is uncertain.MethodsWe linked four administrative databases in Alberta to identify all adults discharged alive after a HF hospitalization between April 1999 and 2009. We randomly selected one episode of care per patient and evaluated the accuracy of five administrative data-based models (4 already published, 1 new) for predicting risk of death or unplanned readmission within 30 days of discharge.ResultsOver 10 years, 59652 adults (mean age 76, 50% women) were discharged after a HF hospitalization. Within 30 days of discharge, 11199 (19%) died or had an unplanned readmission. All 5 administrative data models exhibited moderate discrimination for this outcome (c-statistic between 0.57 and 0.61). Neither Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS)-endorsed model exhibited substantial improvements over the Charlson score for prediction of 30-day post-discharge death or unplanned readmission. However, a new model incorporating length of index hospital stay, age, Charlson score, and number of emergency room visits in the prior 6 months (the LaCE index) exhibited a 20.5% net reclassification improvement (95% CI, 18.4%-22.5%) over the Charlson score and a 19.1% improvement (95% CI, 17.1%-21.2%) over the CMS readmission model.ConclusionsNone of the administrative database models are sufficiently accurate to be used to identify which HF patients require extra resources at discharge. Models which incorporate length of stay such as the LaCE appear superior to current CMS-endorsed models for risk adjusting the outcome of "death or readmission within 30 days of discharge".Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

      Pubmed     Full text   Copy Citation     Plaintext  

      Add institutional full text...

    Notes

     
    Knowledge, pearl, summary or comment to share?
    300 characters remaining
    help        
    You can also include formatting, links, images and footnotes in your notes
    • Simple formatting can be added to notes, such as *italics*, _underline_ or **bold**.
    • Superscript can be denoted by <sup>text</sup> and subscript <sub>text</sub>.
    • Numbered or bulleted lists can be created using either numbered lines 1. 2. 3., hyphens - or asterisks *.
    • Links can be included with: [my link to pubmed](http://pubmed.com)
    • Images can be included with: ![alt text](https://bestmedicaljournal.com/study_graph.jpg "Image Title Text")
    • For footnotes use [^1](This is a footnote.) inline.
    • Or use an inline reference [^1] to refer to a longer footnote elseweher in the document [^1]: This is a long footnote..

    hide…

What will the 'Medical Journal of You' look like?

Start your free 21 day trial now.

We guarantee your privacy. Your email address will not be shared.