• Harriette G C Van Spall, Clare Atzema, Michael J Schull, Gary E Newton, Susanna Mak, Alice Chong, Jack V Tu, Thérèse A Stukel, and Douglas S Lee.
• Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton Health Science and McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.
• Plos One. 2011 Jan 1;6(8):e23065.

ObjectivesGeneric triage risk assessments are widely used in the emergency department (ED), but have not been validated for prediction of short-term risk among patients with acute heart failure (HF). Our objective was to evaluate the Canadian Triage Acuity Scale (CTAS) for prediction of early death among HF patients.MethodsWe included patients presenting with HF to an ED in Ontario from Apr 2003 to Mar 2007. We used the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System and vital statistics databases to examine care and outcomes.ResultsAmong 68,380 patients (76±12 years, 49.4% men), early mortality was stratified with death rates of 9.9%, 1.9%, 0.9%, and 0.5% at 1-day, and 17.2%, 5.9%, 3.8%, and 2.5% at 7-days, for CTAS 1, 2, 3, and 4-5, respectively. Compared to lower acuity (CTAS 4-5) patients, adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for 1-day death were 1.32 (95%CI; 0.93-1.88; p = 0.12) for CTAS 3, 2.41 (95%CI; 1.71-3.40; p<0.001) for CTAS 2, and highest for CTAS 1: 9.06 (95%CI; 6.28-13.06; p<0.001). Predictors of triage-critical (CTAS 1) status included oxygen saturation <90% (aOR 5.92, 95%CI; 3.09-11.81; p<0.001), respiratory rate >24 breaths/minute (aOR 1.96, 95%CI; 1.05-3.67; p = 0.034), and arrival by paramedic (aOR 3.52, 95%CI; 1.70-8.02; p = 0.001). While age/sex-adjusted CTAS score provided good discrimination for ED (c-statistic = 0.817) and 1-day (c-statistic = 0.724) death, mortality prediction was improved further after accounting for cardiac and non-cardiac co-morbidities (c-statistics 0.882 and 0.810, respectively; both p<0.001).ConclusionsA semi-quantitative triage acuity scale assigned at ED presentation and based largely on respiratory factors predicted emergent death among HF patients.

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