• Ingrid Steinvall, Moustafa Elmasry, Mats Fredrikson, and Folke Sjoberg.
• The Burn Centre, Department of Plastic Surgery, Hand Surgery, and Burns, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden; Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden. Electronic address: ingrid.steinvall@regionostergotland.se.
• Burns. 2016 Feb 1; 42 (1): 28-40.

AbstractStandardised Mortality Ratio (SMR) based on generic mortality predicting models is an established quality indicator in critical care. Burn-specific mortality models are preferred for the comparison among patients with burns as their predictive value is better. The aim was to assess whether the sum of age (years) and percentage total body surface area burned (which constitutes the Baux score) is acceptable in comparison to other more complex models, and to find out if data collected from a separate burn centre are sufficient for SMR based quality assessment. The predictive value of nine burn-specific models was tested by comparing values from the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and a non-inferiority analysis using 1% as the limit (delta). SMR was analysed by comparing data from seven reference sources, including the North American National Burn Repository (NBR), with the observed mortality (years 1993-2012, n=1613, 80 deaths). The AUC values ranged between 0.934 and 0.976. The AUC 0.970 (95% CI 0.96-0.98) for the Baux score was non-inferior to the other models. SMR was 0.52 (95% CI 0.28-0.88) for the most recent five-year period compared with NBR based data. The analysis suggests that SMR based on the Baux score is eligible as an indicator of quality for setting standards of mortality in burn care. More advanced modelling only marginally improves the predictive value. The SMR can detect mortality differences in data from a single centre. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

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