• Afina S Glas, Bas A C M Pijnenburg, Jeroen G Lijmer, Kjell Bogaard, Roos Marnix A J de, Johannes N Keeman, Rudolf M J M Butzelaar, and Patrick M M Bossuyt.
• Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands. a.s.glas@amc.uva.nl
• CMAJ. 2002 Mar 19;166(6):727-33.

BackgroundAnkle decision rules help to determine which patients with ankle injuries should undergo radiography. However, these rules are limited by imperfect generalizability and sensitivity. The judgement of physicians, aided by structured data collection, is a potential alternative. We compared the diagnostic performance of 2 decision rules with the performance of physicians, aided by structured data collection, in ruling out fracture in patients with acute ankle injury.MethodsConsecutive patients with acute ankle injury who visited the emergency department of a teaching community hospital in Amsterdam were included in the study. After taking the patient's history and performing a physical examination, the surgical resident in each case completed a specially developed structured data form incorporating all of the variables in the Ottawa and Leiden ankle rules, as well as some additional variables. The form then asked whether the resident thought radiography was necessary. Each patient then underwent ankle and midfoot radiography. The films were independently interpreted by a radiologist and a trauma surgeon, who were both blinded to the information on the data form. Sensitivity, specificity and the percentage of patients for whom radiography was recommended were the main outcome measures.ResultsOf 690 consecutive patients, 647 met the inclusion criteria. Fractures were observed in 74 (11%) of these patients. Sensitivity was 89% (95% confidence interval [CI] 80% to 95%) for the Ottawa ankle rules, 80% (95% CI 69% to 88%) for the Leiden ankle rule and 82% (95% CI 72% to 90%) for physicians' judgement. Specificity was 26% (95% CI 23% to 30%), 59% (95% CI 55% to 63%) and 68% (95% CI 64% to 71%) respectively. Radiography was recommended in 76% (95% CI 72% to 79%), 46% (95% CI 42% to 50%) and 38% (95% CI 34% to 42%) of cases respectively. The Ottawa rules missed 8 fractures, of which 1 was clinically significant, the Leiden rule missed 15 fractures, of which 5 were clinically significant, and the residents missed 13 fractures, of which 1 was clinically significant.InterpretationPhysicians' judgement, aided by structured data collection, was similar to existing international and local decision rules in terms of sensitivity in identifying cases requiring radiography and may outperform these prediction rules in terms of minimizing radiographic examinations for patients with ankle trauma.

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