• Emerg Med J · Sep 2014

    A comparison of actual versus predicted emergency ambulance journey times using generic Geographic Information System software.

    • Peter McMeekin, Jo Gray, Gary A Ford, Jay Duckett, and Christopher I Price.
    • Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK.
    • Emerg Med J. 2014 Sep 1;31(9):758-62.

    Study ObjectiveThe planning of regional emergency medical services is aided by accurate prediction of urgent ambulance journey times, but it is unclear whether it is appropriate to use Geographical Information System (GIS) products designed for general traffic. We examined the accuracy of a commercially available generic GIS package when predicting emergency ambulance journey times under different population and temporal conditions.MethodsWe undertook a retrospective cohort study of emergency ambulance admissions to three emergency departments (ED) serving differing population distributions in northeast England (urban/suburban/rural). The transport time from scene to ED for all the highest priority dispatches between 1 October 2009 and 30 September 2010 was compared with predictions made by generic GIS software.ResultsFor 10,156 emergency ambulance journeys, the mean prediction discrepancy between actual and predicted journey times across all EDs was an underprediction of 1.6 min (SD 4.9). Underprediction was statistically significant at all population densities, but unlikely to be of clinical significance. Ambulances in urban areas were able to exceed general traffic speed, whereas, the opposite effect was seen in suburban and rural road networks. There were minor effects due to travel outside the busiest traffic times (mean overprediction 0.8 min) and during winter months (mean underprediction 0.4 min).ConclusionsIt is reasonable to estimate emergency ambulance journey times using generic GIS software, but in order to avoid insufficient regional ambulance provision it would be necessary to make small adjustments because of the tendency towards systematic underprediction.Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

      Pubmed     Full text   Copy Citation     Plaintext  

      Add institutional full text...

    Notes

     
    Knowledge, pearl, summary or comment to share?
    300 characters remaining
    help        
    You can also include formatting, links, images and footnotes in your notes
    • Simple formatting can be added to notes, such as *italics*, _underline_ or **bold**.
    • Superscript can be denoted by <sup>text</sup> and subscript <sub>text</sub>.
    • Numbered or bulleted lists can be created using either numbered lines 1. 2. 3., hyphens - or asterisks *.
    • Links can be included with: [my link to pubmed](http://pubmed.com)
    • Images can be included with: ![alt text](https://bestmedicaljournal.com/study_graph.jpg "Image Title Text")
    • For footnotes use [^1](This is a footnote.) inline.
    • Or use an inline reference [^1] to refer to a longer footnote elseweher in the document [^1]: This is a long footnote..

    hide…