• Sanjay Purkayastha, Andre Chow, Thanos Athanasiou, Apostolos Cambaroudis, Sukhmeet Panesar, James Kinross, Paris Tekkis, and Ara Darzi.
• Imperial College, Department of Biosurgery and Surgical Technology, 10th Floor, QEQM Building, St. Mary's Hospital, Praed Street, London, W2 1 NY, UK.
• World J Surg. 2006 Sep 1;30(9):1713-21.

PurposeThis study was designed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of serum procalcitonin (PCT) for the diagnosis of severity in acute pancreatitis (AP), compared with routine clinical, biochemical, radiological, and combination severity scoring systems.MethodsQuantitative meta-analysis was performed on prospective studies, comparing serum PCT, against validated scoring systems for diagnosing severe AP. The sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratio were calculated for each study. Summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curves and subgroup analysis were undertaken. Study quality and heterogeneity were evaluated. Meta-regression meta-analysis was used to evaluate the effect of using serum PCT in the diagnostic accuracy severity scoring in AP.ResultsSummary receiver operating characteristic analysis of nine studies showed an overall sensitivity and specificity of 74% (range: 66%-81%) and 83% (range: 79%-87%), respectively. Overall unweighted area under the curve (AUC) was 0.91 (DOR = 16.26 95% CI: 5.68-46.60), demonstrating significant heterogeneity (Q-value = 25.32; P = 0.001). When high-quality studies alone were evaluated, there was an increase in the overall sensitivity (89%); however, specificity was similar (82%), with an overall unweighted AUC of 0.94 (DOR 41.46, 95% CI: 17.95-95.80), with no significant heterogeneity. Meta-regression analysis confirmed the significant effect of study quality on the diagnostic accuracy of severity scoring using serum PCT (P = 0.025).ConclusionsThe use of PCT for severity scoring in AP has a moderate sensitivity but higher specificity. However, the overall accuracy for predicting severity in AP is high. The prognosis of severity, especially early on (<48 hours from onset of symptoms), and the evaluation of potential infectious complications of AP may be the most useful factors to assess in subsequent clinical trials to identify its exact application in clinical practice in the management of AP.

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