• Nathan Bushby, Mark Fitzgerald, Peter Cameron, Silvana Marasco, Adam Bystrzycki, Jeffrey V Rosenfeld, and Michael Bailey.
• Emergency and Trauma Centre, The Alfred, Prahran, Victoria, Australia. nathan.bushby@southernhealth.org.au
• Emerg Med Australas. 2005 Oct 1;17(5-6):443-9.

ObjectiveApplication of the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) to a trauma population identifies patients with 'unexpected survival'. This study used TRISS analysis to identify 'unexpected survivors' suffering major thoracic trauma, who survived to hospital discharge. Further analysis determined prehospital interventions that appeared to contribute to 'unexpected survival'.MethodsThe present study was a single-centre, retrospective case review with comparative statistical analysis. Patients were identified from the Alfred Trauma Registry between 1 July 2002 and 30 June 2003.ResultsThere were 336 adult trauma patients treated at The Alfred Trauma Centre with an Injury Severity Score >15 (major trauma) and at least one thoracic Anatomical Injury Score of 3 (severe) or greater. Of the eligible patients, 322/336 (95.8%, 95%[confidence interval] CI 95.1-96.5%) had complete data available for analysis. The study population mortality was 42/322 (13.0%, 95% CI 12.3-13.7%). There were 20 'unexpected survivors' (5.9%) and 5 (1.5%) 'unexpected deaths' on TRISS analysis. Chest decompression and/or endotracheal intubation prehospital was performed on 16/20 'unexpected survivors'. GCS for 'unexpected survivors' and 'expected deaths' (3.8 vs 3.5, P = 0.27) was not a predictor of survival. Respiratory rate per minute (16.2 vs 8.8, P = 0.01) and systolic blood pressure - mmHg (98 vs 80, P = 0.03) were significantly greater in the 'unexpected survivors' group compared with the 'expected death' group.ConclusionFor patients sustaining severe thoracic blunt trauma, prehospital intubation and chest decompression appear to be associated with unexpected survival. A low GCS at scene is not predictive of 'unexpected survival' or 'expected death'.

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