• Cristina Granja, Pedro Póvoa, Cristina Lobo, Armando Teixeira-Pinto, António Carneiro, and Altamiro Costa-Pereira.
• Department of Health Information and Decision Sciences, Faculty of Medicine of Porto, Porto, Portugal. cristinagranja@hotmail.com
• Plos One. 2013 Jan 1;8(1):e53885.

IntroductionPIRO is a conceptual classification system in which a number of demographic, clinical, biological and laboratory variables are used to stratify patients with sepsis in categories with different outcomes, including mortality rates.ObjectivesTo identify variables to be included in each component of PIRO aiming to improve the hospital mortality prediction.MethodsPatients were selected from the Portuguese ICU-admitted community-acquired sepsis study (SACiUCI). Variables concerning the R and O component included repeated measurements along the first five days in ICU stay. The trends of these variables were summarized as the initial value at day 1 (D1) and the slope of the tendency during the five days, using a linear mixed model. Logistic regression models were built to assess the best set of covariates that predicted hospital mortality.ResultsA total of 891 patients (age 60±17 years, 64% men, 38% hospital mortality) were studied. Factors significantly associated with mortality for P component were gender, age, chronic liver failure, chronic renal failure and metastatic cancer; for I component were positive blood cultures, guideline concordant antibiotic therapy and health-care associated sepsis; for R component were C-reactive protein slope, D1 heart rate, heart rate slope, D1 neutrophils and neutrophils slope; for O component were D1 serum lactate, serum lactate slope, D1 SOFA and SOFA slope. The relative weight of each component of PIRO was calculated. The combination of these four results into a single-value predictor of hospital mortality presented an AUC-ROC 0.84 (IC(95%):0.81-0.87) and a test of goodness-of-fit (Hosmer and Lemeshow) of p = 0.368.ConclusionsWe identified specific variables associated with each of the four components of PIRO, including biomarkers and a dynamic view of the patient daily clinical course. This novel approach to PIRO concept and overall score can be a better predictor of mortality for patients with community-acquired sepsis admitted to ICUs.

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