• L Greenberg and J M Cultice.
• Department of Health and Human Services, Bureau of Health Professions, Rockville, MD 20857, USA.
• Health Serv Res. 1997 Feb 1;31(6):723-37.

ObjectiveThe Health Resources and Services Administration's Bureau of Health Professions developed a demographic utilization-based model of physician specialty requirements to explore the consequences of a broad range of scenarios pertaining to the nation's health care delivery system on need for physicians.Data Source/Study SettingThe model uses selected data primarily from the National Center for Health Statistics, the American Medical Association, and the U.S. Bureau of Census. Forecasts are national estimates.Study DesignCurrent (1989) utilization rates for ambulatory and inpatient medical specialty services were obtained for the population according to age, gender, race/ethnicity, and insurance status. These rates are used to estimate specialty-specific total service utilization expressed in patient care minutes for future populations and converted to physician requirements by applying per-physician productivity estimates.Data Collection/Extraction MethodsSecondary data were analyzed and put into matrixes for use in the mainframe computer-based model. Several missing data points, e.g., for HMO-enrolled populations, were extrapolated from available data by the project's contractor.Principal FindingsThe authors contend that the Bureau's demographic utilization model represents improvements over other data-driven methodologies that rely on staffing ratios and similar supply-determined bases for estimating requirements. The model's distinct utility rests in offering national-level physician specialty requirements forecasts.

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